Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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989 FXUS63 KABR 280538 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1238 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the region east of the Missouri River late this afternoon through the overnight hours. No severe weather is expected. - Dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. - A 20-40% chance of precipitation exists Wednesday night, and a 45-80% chance exists on Thursday. Beyond that, a general 20 to 40% chance of rain remains in the forecast for Friday through Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 814 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Minor updates with respect to coverage of showers and weak thunderstorms. Right now its fairly isolated as cells weaken, however there remains upstream activity associated with the northwest flow shortwave in North Dakota. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 One upper level shortwave trough is beginning to exit the region to the east this afternoon, but will see another drop in from the north later tonight before tracking east of the region early Tuesday morning. Ridging will build over the central part of the country Tuesday and Tuesday night. At the surface, a frontal boundary currently over the eastern CWA has combined with the some weak instability and the first upper level wave to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect some lightning to be the main threat with the storms, and they should dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Will likely see another area of showers, and maybe a few thunderstorms, track across the central and eastern overnight in association the second upper level shortwave. High pressure will then drop in over the region, bringing a return to dry conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the lower 60s to the lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Wednesday morning we continue to have an upper level ridge over the region. Models have sped things up a little and have the low start to move into the area on Thursday. This low will continue to affect the region through the day Saturday. There looks to be a very slight shortwave in the overall westerly flow pattern on Sunday. Otherwise, a ridge starts to move toward the region at the end of the period. Wednesday has a chance for some rain and storms. Storms in the afternoon/evening will most likely be west of the Missouri River, as the cold front from the Thursday low (still in southern Canada) stretches east into the area and becomes a stationary front. Thursday afternoon/evening, storms would be possible mostly east of the Missouri as the cold front continues to move east during the day. The NBM shows slight to chance PoPs through the overnight Wednesday night and continues PoPs into Friday morning. However, storms are unlikely to continue several hours after sunset. With the possible shortwave on Sunday, there is a chance for another round of showers and storms. Details are few as this is 6 days out. Temperatures throughout the period will be around normal. Days with rain chances will be slightly cooler, but expect highs generally in the mid 70s to around 80. The end of the period gets a little warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds also aren`t expected to be an issue except some possibly 35+ mph gusts Wednesday in west river counties as a result of the cold/stationary front. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals. There are a few light showers out there but probability for these to occur at any particular station is low. However, did include a prevailing mention of VCSH at KABR and KATY during the pre-dawn hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Connelly SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Vipond