Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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379 FXUS63 KABR 062038 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 338 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds finally subside this evening and will much lighter on Friday compared to the past couple days. - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected Friday into Friday evening. Threat for severe weather is very low. 15-20% chance of light rain returns Sunday afternoon with chances increasing Monday night into Tuesday (20-40%). - Above normal temperatures will return Tuesday-Thursday of next week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Observations across the region are indicating gusts from 45 to 55 mph across the eastern CWA, and even into portions of north central SD. Expanded the Wind Advisory a couple times earlier today to account for a more southerly and westerly shift in the highest speeds. Also receiving a few reports of blowing dust across the eastern CWA, while also noticing this on a couple web cams across the region. Dust RGB satellite data also shows the ribbon of dust stretching from ND southeast through the eastern SD and into portions of southeast SD and southwest MN. As we head into the evening hours, winds will subside as surface high pressure eventually builds in across the area. Fairly good radiational cooling conditions set up overnight, and combined with the dry air mass, we should see fairly cool temps in the mid/upper 40s for lows for many locations. Models seem to be showing a bit more areal coverage of showers on Friday as a weak disturbance moves through. Morning activity likely confined to the western/southwestern CWA in a warm air advection regime and the passing mid-level disturbance. Then, a second area of precipitation looks to start late afternoon into the evening across the northern/eastern CWA with the passage of the surface trough. HREF paintball output for >40dbz shows these two locations of precip potential, and the two differing times rather nicely. Instability is really lacking tomorrow, so just expect general showers or thundershowers with very low potential for severe storms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Dry weather and overall sunny conditions expected for the start of the long term as a surface trough moves out and a high settles over the area. Northwest flow continues aloft with a ridge over the Intermountain West and trough/mid level low extending from the Northeastern US southwestward into the upper Midwest. 850mb max temps for Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday (thanks to the high) ranging from 8-13C, coolest over the northeastern CWA, and 925mb temps ranging from 16-20C. These temps for Sunday are either at or a few degrees cooler. Latest NBM 25-75th spread for MaxT is only 3-4 degrees for Saturday but we see that increase on Sunday to a 10-12 degree spread. Forecasted highs range in the 70s across the CWA for the weekend. Sunday afternoon, this high shifts southeast as a fairly stacked low swings down from Canada and continues it track southeast over the Northern Plains into early next week. Latest NBM pops has a 15% chance of moisture Sunday with pops increasing to 20-40% for Monday and Tuesday. Few weak thunderstorms are possible. Behind the system the ridge moves in overhead (differences between Clusters on the exact amplitude for Day 6/7)and we will see temps warm up back into the 80s and possibly lower 90s. NBM Prob of MaxT>90 is 30-50% from north central to south central SD on Wednesday and 50-70% from ABR to Huron and westward on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. -SHRA/-TSRA are possible near KPIR Friday morning, so have included a VC (vicinity) mention at this time. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>011-017>023. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...TMT