Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
816 FNAK51 PAFC 231201 FWFAER FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .DISCUSSION... Warm and relatively dry conditions are expected once again for much of southcentral Alaska on Sunday. RH will drop to near 25 percent for much of the Susitna Valley, as well as the Copper River Basin. Temperatures will again be in the mid 70s to low 80s for those areas, with coastal locations and higher elevations remaining cooler. The difference from Saturday will come in a few ways... 1) Thunderstorm coverage will be a little more widespread than on Saturday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop in all the typical mountain ranges this afternoon and then push westward given a weak easterly steering flow. 2) Synoptic winds will be a bit less than on Saturday, which should keep us just below red flag criteria. However, thunderstorms may produce gusty outflows that result in a brief period of strong winds. 3) UAF and HRRR smoke models suggest smoke from the interior may move into portions of southcentral Alaska, which may moderate temps (and thus RH) even more. Looking ahead, the first half of next week looks relatively similar in the sense that warm and fairly dry conditions will continue with afternoon shower/thunderstorm chances. In fact, a ridge of high pressure extending from Yukon into east-central Alaska is expected to strengthen, which may result in the warmest temperatures of the year thus far for the Copper River Basin by Wednesday. AKZ101-240230- ANCHORAGE- INCLUDING...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...EKLUTNA 401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .ABOVE 1500 FT... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS SHWRS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 30 50 TEMP (24H TREND) 66-74 (-4) 52 (0) 62-71 RH % (24H TREND) 43-60 (+11) 84 (+5) 50-70 20FTWND(MPH) SW 3-9 S 1-8 W 3-6 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4266 3322 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)S 3 S 8 CWR 10 10 10 LAL 2 2 1 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 24105 29898 REMARKS...NONE. .BELOW 1500 FT... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS SHWRS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 30 40 TEMP (24H TREND) 79 (-1) 55 (+1) 74 RH % (24H TREND) 46-52 (+10) 86 (+5) 55-63 20FTWND(MPH) W 3-9 S 1-10 W 3-7 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4156 3423 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)S 6 SW 7 CWR 10 10 10 LAL 2 2 1 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 28869 23418 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ AKZ111-240230- MATANUSKA VALLEY- INCLUDING...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON 401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .ABOVE 1500 FT... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 50 60 TEMP (24H TREND) 65-72 (-2) 50 (0) 61-69 RH % (24H TREND) 45-56 (+10) 77-84 (+5) 55-72 20FTWND(MPH) S 3-10 SW 1-7 W 4-8 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5835 3983 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)E 6 W 6 CWR 10 10 20 LAL 2 2 2 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 36833 22158 REMARKS...NONE. .BELOW 1500 FT... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 40 50 TEMP (24H TREND) 80 (-1) 55 (+3) 75 RH % (24H TREND) 42-48 (+8) 85 (+5) 52-59 20FTWND(MPH) S 1-9 SW 1-8 SW 4-9 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5789 4405 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SE 5 SW 6 CWR 10 10 20 LAL 2 2 2 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 37828 29241 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ AKZ121-240230- WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA- INCLUDING...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING 401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .INLAND AREAS... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 40 50 TEMP (24H TREND) 69-80 (-4) 52 (0) 65-74 RH % (24H TREND) 42-55 (+17) 82-91 (+11) 49-64 20FTWND(MPH) W 2-10 S 2-8 W 3-7 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5539 3957 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)NE 5 SW 7 CWR 20 10 10 LAL 2 2 2 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 29635 24920 REMARKS...NONE. .COASTAL AREAS... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY MCLDY PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 20 20 TEMP (24H TREND) 68-74 (-3) 52 (-1) 63-69 RH % (24H TREND) 49-59 (+15) 81-90 (+8) 57-67 20FTWND(MPH) W 4-7 SW 3-9 SW 5-10 G17 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3917 3169 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)W 6 SW 9 CWR 10 10 10 LAL 1 1 1 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 24054 22212 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ AKZ125-240230- WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS 401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .INLAND AREAS... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 30 40 TEMP (24H TREND) 63-75 (-1) 50 (-1) 59-71 RH % (24H TREND) 44-57 (+12) 78-86 (+5) 47-63 20FTWND(MPH) SE 2-11 SE 3-9 SE 2-7 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4855 4002 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SE 6 SE 8 CWR 10 10 10 LAL 2 2 2 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 28271 34605 REMARKS...NONE. .COASTAL AREAS... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 30 30 TEMP (24H TREND) 59-67 (-5) 50 (0) 55-63 RH % (24H TREND) 52-76 (+21) 83-93 (+10) 60-84 20FTWND(MPH) NE 2-8 NE 1-7 SE 2-6 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 2125 2272 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)E 6 SE 7 CWR 10 10 10 LAL 1 1 1 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 16681 22460 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. $$ AKZ141-240230- COPPER RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...PAXSON...SLANA 401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .ABOVE 2500 FT... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 50 60 TEMP (24H TREND) 50-71 (-2) 39-47 (0) 50-71 RH % (24H TREND) 28-64 (+10) 69-78 (0) 35-67 20FTWND(MPH) E 3-10 E 2-9 SW 3-8 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 8398 8173 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)E 7 SW 7 CWR 10 10 10 LAL 2 2 2 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 67839 53670 REMARKS...NONE. .BELOW 2500 FT... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS SHWRS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 30 40 TEMP (24H TREND) 80 (+2) 51 (0) 79 RH % (24H TREND) 24-33 (+1) 75 (+4) 30-38 20FTWND(MPH) E 1-8 SE 3-10 S 4-8 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 9266 8504 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)E 7 S 7 CWR 10 10 10 LAL 2 2 1 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 75363 54702 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. $$ AKZ145-240230- SUSITNA VALLEY- INCLUDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW 401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .ABOVE 1500 FT... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 40 60 TEMP (24H TREND) 68-76 (+1) 52 (+2) 64-73 RH % (24H TREND) 30-45 (+9) 72-80 (+11) 44-62 20FTWND(MPH) NE 3-9 SE 2-9 SW 5-9 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 7391 6660 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)NE 6 SW 7 CWR 10 10 20 LAL 2 2 2 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 51808 39348 REMARKS...NONE. .BELOW 1500 FT... TODAY TONIGHT MON CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 30 50 TEMP (24H TREND) 81 (-1) 53 (0) 77 RH % (24H TREND) 32-40 (+11) 81-87 (+13) 44-52 20FTWND(MPH) N 1-7 SW 2-13 S 5-9 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 7107 6652 TRANSPORT WND (MPH)NE 5 S 8 CWR 10 10 10 LAL 2 2 2 VENT RATE (KT-FT) 49446 55413 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$