895
FXAK69 PAFG 232005
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1205 PM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic trough will keep light snow over the N Slope and Arctic
into mid week. A deep but weakening low over the Gulf shifts
inland tonight, increasing chances for rain/snow showers (snow
levels 1000 feet or less over the Central Interior). It`ll be
fairly cloudy through this week for most of the Interior. This
will push Fairbanks International towards the latest "first
freeze" of the season of all-time (Sept 27, 1974).

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a large sprawling low over the Mainland and Gulf of AK,
with the center currently over the Gulf at 526 dam. Underneath
that is a strong 976 mb low. Arctic troughing persists over the
Beaufort Sea. North gradient over the Mainland is in response to
the deep Gulf of AK low. Snow showers are still ongoing over the
Arctic and N Slope.

Forecast and Model Discussion...
Models are pretty well clustered as the low in the Gulf of AK
shifts north and weakens. with arctic troughing shifting into the
W Interior. The only noteworthy discrepancy is with a possible
weak low moving into the E Arctic on Wednesday, with the NAM and
Canadian being the strongest. The net effect is to spread more
snow over the Prudhoe Bay to Kaktovik. We favor more of a
GFS/ECMWF which has lighter snowfall.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A wave of energy from the Gulf of AK will rotate inland tonight,
bringing rain showers mixed with snow to higher elevations. Most
valley locations will remain dry, with the best chance for lower
elevation showers being over the Upper Tanana Valley, as well as
over the Minto Flats. Snow levels drop to 300-400 feet by Tue
night over the Central Interior, so some light snow accumulations
of an inch or less are possible. 1 to 3 inches of snow through
midweek is likely over the high elevations of the Steese Hwy, with
1 to 2 inches down by the AK Range. Otherwise, it will be fairly
cloudy.

West Coast and Western Interior...
North winds continue through Tuesday night then begin to slowly
wane. However, they will continue as an arctic trough persists
over the region. Moisture spreading west will bring in rain/snow
shower chances to the Interior and eventually the West Coast for
the second half of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow showers are north winds will continue over the Brooks Range
with minor blowing snow through Tue. Light snow accumulations will
persist all the way through the end of the week with another 3 to
6 inches of snow for the higher elevations of the Brooks Range,
with a skiff to 3 inches elsewhere. North winds to 30 mph will
continue near Point Hope.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
An arctic trough will persist over the western half of the
Mainland and West Coast while several stronger storms move into
the Gulf of AK this weekend into early next week. This pattern
will keep the Interior on the drier side as a general northeast
wind regime persists. Ridging aloft may build in over the E
Interior late weekend and early next week which may allow for some
partial clearing over the E Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-805-806-850-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-804-852-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-810-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$
Ahsenmacher