Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
711 FXAK69 PAFG 190744 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1144 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Wet and cool over the Interior through today with continued rain showers. An arctic trough digs into the Brooks Range and Arctic on Friday, bringing widespread accumulating snowfall to the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain. That same arctic trough will dig across the Interior and also bring chances for mixed rain and snow to parts of the E Interior from the White Mtns down to the Alaska Range. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... The Pacific storm track is now well south of the Mainland. A weakening low is now moving into the Panhandle with a broad trough moving into the West Coast and Arctic. Weak ripples of energy are moving across the Interior, bringing rain showers to the S Interior and Alaska Range. Forecast and Model Discussion... Models are tightly clustered as a trough forms across the Mainland over the next three days. Rain showers will gradually shift east and then colder air will move across the Brooks Range into the Interior, lowering snow levels down to 1000 feet by this weekend. A good early season accumulating snowfall is expected for the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain with several inches expected Friday and Saturday. Snow accumulations, albeit low, are expected over the White Mtns and into the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. The Alaska Range will also see light snow accumulations. A blend to the GFS, NAM Nest, and NBM was favored, although there were minimal changes to forecast thinking. Central and Eastern Interior... Light rain showers will continue through today which will keep it wetter and cooler from the White Mtns southward. Light snow accumulations are expected in the Alaska Range with snow levels dropping to 2000 feet by tonight, albeit light snow, enough to possible coat the ground. An arctic trough digs southward Friday and Saturday, and will keep precip chances in the forecast from the White Mtns to the Yukon-Tanana Uplands, and down over the Alaska Range. The big question mark will be the Tanana Valley, where rain is possible, but snow levels could drop below 1000 feet Saturday. Right now, little to no lower elevation snow is expected, but it will be getting cooler as the trough digs south. The Hills around Fairbanks could see some white ground by Sunday morning. West Coast and Western Interior... Light onshore flow will keep periodic light rain showers over the region, with mixed snow showers over the NW Arctic and W Brooks Range, through Friday. After that, north winds behind the arctic trough will dry things out and high pressure builds in for the weekend with offshore flow. North Slope and Brooks Range... Light northwest winds will accompany an arctic trough moving into the region tonight, and moving east through the weekend. This will bring accumulating snow to the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain, with several inches of accumulating snowfall expected. Right now, 48+ hour totals of 6+ inches are likely from Umiat east to the Dalton Hwy corridor south of Prudhoe Bay. High pressure over the W Arctic will keep that side of the region on the drier side after Sat. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Sunday and beyond, arctic troughing will be in place over the Interior with a strong low moving into the Gulf of AK. Eventually warmer air will move back into the Gulf and will try and move north. This will likely keep rain/snow showers possible over the Mainland, especially the eastern half of the Interior. The W Interior looks drier with north winds, while the arctic air persists from the Brooks Range north. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .HYDROLOGY... No concerns. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...None. && $$ Ahsenmacher