Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
377 FXAK69 PAFG 141242 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 442 AM AKDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The Interior will become warmer and drier today with isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior. Some of those thunderstorms over the NE Interior will be dry and increase the possibility of fire starts. The Interior will become hot and dry over the weekend, much like last weekend, but without the wind. There will be a few thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior Sat and Sun. The West Coast has been cool with areas of fog, and there are isolated to scattered showers west of Nome and Kivalina. Similar conditions will continue into today, then expect showers to end and fog to become more widespread tonight into Sun. Expect stratus and fog to remain along the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik east today then thin at Utqiagvik Sat. West of Utqiagvik, cloudy skies southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, isolated to scattered showers, and above normal temps today into the weekend. The inland North Slope and Brooks Range will remain very warm and dry through the weekend, with isolated PM thunderstorms in the Central Brooks Range today through Sat. Surface Pattern... A thermal low pressure trough will continue to move to Chicken to Atigun Pass to Umiat by this afternoon, and to Chicken to Arctic Village by Sat afternoon, then remain there into Sun. This will be the focus for thunderstorms the next several days. A weakening vertically stacked low in the Gulf of Anadyr will move to 300 NM west of Point Hope by Fri afternoon, to 300 NM northwest of Utqiagvik by Sat afternoon, and to 200 NM northwest of Utqiagvik by Sun afternoon. This is causing coolness with areas of fog, and isolated to scattered showers along the West Coast that will spread north over the Western Arctic on the weekend. Scattered showers and above normal temps Fri into the weekend. High pressure over the Beaufort Sea will persist into Sun. This will cause east winds along the Arctic Coast east of Utqiagvik along with pushing in stratus and fog and keeping it there into Sun. High pressure over SW AK will build over the West Coast today and Sat and then persist into Sun. This will cause stratus and fog along the West Coast that will persist through Sunday, becoming thin in the afternoon and evenings, and becoming more dense midnight to morning. && .DISCUSSION... The long wave pattern will consist of an omega block with the blocker high over mainland AK, a low over the Gulf of AK, another low over the Today, at 850 mb, the 0C isotherm will be from the Seward Pen and Point Hope NW, while the +10C isotherm is over the Eastern North Slope and much of the Eastern Interior. By Sat the +10C isotherm covers the Central and Eastern Interior and Brooks Range, while the West Coast warms as does the Arctic Coast. All areas warm 1-2C on Sun. Surface temps will follow suit expect for areas with seas or land breezes. With precipitation, no areas receive significant precip through the weekend other than isolated areas under PM thunder storms today. Sat and Sun will be mainly dry for most areas. At the surface, models show similar solutions at the surface through Sun. Sustained winds over the Interior remain less than 15 mph through the weekend. The Eastern Arctic Coast will have east winds of 15 to 20 mph tonight through today. South winds 15 to 25 mph in the Bering Strait and near Point Hope into Sat. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... A thermal low pressure trough will continue to move to Chicken to Atigun Pass to Umiat by this afternoon, and to Chicken to Arctic Village by Sat afternoon, then remain there into Sun. This will be the focus for thunderstorms the next several days. The Interior will become warmer and drier today with isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior. Some of those thunderstorms over the NE Interior will be dry and increase the possibility of fire starts today. The Interior will become hot and drier over the weekend, much like last weekend but without the wind. There will be a few thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior Sat and Sun. && .HYDROLOGY... High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm temperatures and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that water levels will fall slowly through the weekend and into next week. Periods of heavy showers fell along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range, and over the Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie and Upper Fortymile River Basins the past few days. Rainfall amounts range from half to nearly 2 inches, with the heaviest amounts along the Alaska Range to the east of Denali Park. This rain has caused rapid rises on streams and small rivers in steep terrain. The streams and small rivers are beginning to fall. Larger rivers such as the Tanana, the Delta, the Nabesna and the Chisana Rivers should rise over the next several days. Although no flooding is expected, people in the Alaska Range east of Denali Park, and along the Goodpaster, Charlie and Fortymile Rivers should be alert to high river levels into this morning. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ933-935. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. && $$