852
FXAK69 PAFG 191448
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
648 AM AKDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be slightly warmer and drier than Tuesday was in most areas.
Thu will be cooler and more humid, then there will be warming and
drying trend from Fri into the weekend. Winds will be less than 15 mph
through Fri except for winds gusting to 30 mph near thunderstorms and
through passes of the Brooks Range and AK Range.

A 1011 mb low
150 NM southwest of Point Hope will move to the Gulf of Anadyr as
a 1014 mb low by 4pm Wed, and then continue moving west. An Arctic
cold front from this low to Point Hope to St Lawrence Island will
remain in place today then move west and weaken tonight. This is
causing cool conditions and rain along the Seward Pen and
portions of the West Coast today that will temper tonight.

High pressure north of the Arctic Coast will persist into Fri.
This will cause stratus and fog to move into the Arctic Coast
later today, then persist into Fri, with fog thinning off in the
PM each day.

A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Howard Pass to
Bettles to Chicken will move to Ambler to Livengood to Chicken on
Thu and to and to McGrath to Northway on Fri and then remain
there into the weekend. This is causing convective showers and
serving as a focus for the convection.

An upper level low pressure trough over the Gulf of AK will move
north over the AK Range and Southeast Interior Thu night and Fri.

Today will be slightly warmer and drier than Tuesday was in most areas.
Thu will be cooler and more humid, then there will be warming and
drying trend from Fri into the weekend. Winds will be less than 15 mph
through Fri except for winds gusting to 30 mph near thunderstorms and
through passes of the Brooks Range and AK Range.

Isolated thunderstorms this morning will increase in occurrence to
widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening today.
Small hail and gusty winds will accompany thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Thu will see isolated thunderstorms through the day
with widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. .
Fri will have just isolated PM thunderstorms in most areas with
widely scattered thunderstorms along the AK Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show similar
solutions through 3pm Wed, then the ECMWF starts to move a short
wave trough from the Gulf of AK north more quickly than other
models. At this time favor the consensus of the GFS/ NAM and
Canadian models for features aloft through Fri. Will use a blend
of the GFS/ NAM and Canadian models for features aloft through
Sat.

At 850 mb temperatures are similar today to Tue, then warm along
the Arctic and West Coasts Thu with slight cooling over the
Interior. Temperatures warm all areas 1-2C on Fri and Sat.
Surface temperatures will follow similar trends.

At the surface, models verify well at 06Z. Models show similar
solutions through Sat. Winds across the Interior remain less than
15 mph through Sat except in passes of the AK and Brooks Range
where 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph are possible in the PM each day.
Winds along the coasts will remain 20 mph or less.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Howard Pass to Bettles
to Chicken will move to Ambler to Livengood to Chicken on Thu and to
and to McGrath to Northway on Fri and then remain there into the weekend.
An upper level low pressure trough over the Gulf of AK will move north
over the AK Range and Southeast Interior Thu night and Fri.

Today will be slightly warmer and drier than Tuesday was in most areas.
Thu will be cooler and more humid, then there will be warming and
drying trend from Fri into the weekend. Winds will be less than 15 mph
through Fri except for winds gusting to 30 mph near thunderstorms and
through passes of the Brooks Range and AK Range.

Isolated thunderstorms this morning will increase in occurrence to
widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening today.
Small hail and gusty winds will accompany thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Thu will see isolated thunderstorms through the day
with widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. .
Fri will have just isolated PM thunderstorms in most areas with
widely scattered thunderstorms along the AK Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels on the North Slope continue to fall. No widespread
flooding is expected, but will need to keep an eye on slow moving
thunderstorms across steep terrain of the SE Interior and AK
Range on Thu PM and Fri AM when increasing numbers of
thunderstorms could fire up there and heavy rain is possible.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ840.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

JB