Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
398 FXAK69 PAFG 280907 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 107 AM AKDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The next couple days will see warming over most of the Interior as temps briefly go above seasonal norms. Moderate rains will continue to impact the Fortymile Uplands, SE Interior, and far fringes of the E Alaska Range as easterly waves move across that region. Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday as an easterly wave tracks across most of the Interior, with cooler temps moving in Thursday behind this low. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... There is a migratory easterly wave moving across the NE Interior and into the E Brooks Range. There is a 523 dam arctic low now over the Chukotsk Peninsula, and moving west. There is a 533 dam upper low over the E Aleutians shifting east, and another 539 dam upper low stationed over the Gulf of AK. Yet another easterly shortwave trough is moving through the Yukon toward the ALCAN. Rain showers continue over the SE Interior from Delta Junction eastward. Model Discussion... The numerical models are in much better agreement with a pair of easterly waves projected to move across the E Interior the next few days. All models have shifted much faster with an easterly wave on Wednesday, which the ECMWF yesterday first caught on to. Now all models show this, so there is much better certainty on timing and thunderstorm potential. A blend of models will be favored for POPS and thunderstorms, with hi-res NAM for winds. Central and Eastern Interior... Today will be much the same as the last few, with more moderate rain showers focused over the E Alaska Range east of Delta Junction to the SE Interior, and across the Fortymile Uplands. Elsewhere, it will be a few degrees warmer with highs into the upper 60s. Wednesday is warmer still except for the same area in the SE corner of the Interior, with highs reaching back into the 70 degree range. Showers and thunderstorm chances spread across the S Interior including around Fairbanks and those will congeal into an area of more organized rain showers overnight as they track across the Alaska Range from east to west. In that systems wake will be cooler temps over the S Interior with the axis of thunderstorm instability shifting from the White Mtns north. Finally, heavy rain showers will come to an end over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range by Thu. West Coast and Western Interior... Drying and warming today and Wednesday with only some isolated showers over the Lower Yukon this afternoon and again Wednesday. Thursday starts out dry with increasing afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Interior, then expanding to the Seward Peninsula and near coastal regions in the evening and overnight. North Slope and Brooks Range... Continued east winds today wane as high pressure builds in. Stratus and fog will remain for the next several days as high pressure builds and then the flow becomes northeasterly again Wednesday, with the possibility of stratus and fog pushing all the way to the slopes of the Brooks Range. Rain mixed with snow will occur this morning and early afternoon over the passes of the Central Brooks Range including Atigun and Anaktuvuk. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... The extended is basically a repeat of what has been going on the last several days as easterly flow aloft dominates as another large low moves into the Gulf of AK. This means seasonal weather with bouts of showers and occasional thunderstorms over the Interior, with general northerly winds along the West Coast. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today is fairly stable with more wetting rain showers over SE Interior over the same areas, although rains will be lighter today than the last few days. Isolated wet thunder today is pretty much relegated to the ALCAN border and looks very marginal...maybe a handful of strikes at best. Temps do warm and today will have min RH values into the upper 20s west of the Fairbanks area. Wednesday looks even warmer with more widespread low 70s from Fairbanks west, with isolated thunderstorm chances expanding again across the whole S Interior, with a pocket of widely scattered thunderstorms possible over the White Mtns/Fortymile Uplands/Upper Chena Basin. This will be in conjunction with a weak easterly wave moving through, and low level steering flow from the northeast. Thunderstorms look active again Thu, especially over the W Interior and into the Upper Koyukuk to the Yukon Flats. It will be more stable and cooler over the S Interior Thu. && .HYDROLOGY... At Fort Yukon Monday afternoon, a river observer reported that water levels had receded approximately one foot since Saturday with only a few inches of water remaining over the roadway near Liquor Store Lake. Sloughs near the airport remain just above bankfull. The water level in Fort Yukon will crest the mid-week. Minor flooding will continue through at least the middle of the week, with water receding very slowly by late in the week. Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs. Rainfall continues across the southeast Interior through the next couple of days with another half to one inch of rain over the Upper Tanana Basin, Eastern Alaska Range and Fortymile. There are no significant hydro concerns for now as rivers will rise but remain fairly low. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Flood Warning AKZ833. PK...None. && $$ Ahsenmacher