Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
026 FXAK69 PAFG 142108 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 108 PM AKDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure system will move north and east along the West Coast this weekend bringing strong winds, high surf, and heavy rainfall. As the low tracks towards the Interior, rain will spread eastward on Sunday. Strong winds develop in the Eastern Alaska Range this afternoon and persist into Sunday morning. Another low will track into Bristol Bay on Tuesday. .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... Aloft, at 500 mb, Aloft, A 526 dam low will deepen over the Western Bering and push a front across the west coast on Saturday. The low continues northeast towards the West Coast through Saturday then inland on Sunday. South-Southwest flow will develop over the Alaska Range on Saturday. Shortwaves will begin to move east over the Interior Sunday and Monday as the upper level low progresses inland bringing more rain chances to the Interior. At the surface, a 982 mb low between St Lawrence Island and Nunivak Island will wobble around the Bering Strait Sat night then move across the Y-K Delta Coasst on Sunday. Surface low will be near Galena by Monday morning before weakening. North Slope and Brooks Range... Rain and Snow shower activity will be confined to the Brooks Range today. Rain and Snow chances increase late Saturday night across the Brooks Range, spreading north to the Coast Sunday as the Bering low moves north along the West Coast, pushing a front north and east. Mostly snow in the Passes with possible accumulations of 2 to 4 inches but not much accumulation on the Dalton Highway. Along the coast, east winds of 10 to 20 mph along the coast will prevail with east winds of 15 to 20 mph along Central and Eastern Beaufort Sea coast through Sunday. Winds diminish late Sunday into Monday as the front pushes north of the coast. West Coast and Western Interior... A low pressure system will move to St Lawrence Island and the Y-K Delta this morning, tracking north and east across the West Coast and Western Interior into Monday. Gusty southeast winds of 20 to 35 mph will develop with the passage of the front and the associated low, with the strongest winds occurring over the Y-K Delta and Eastern Norton Sound. On the backside of the low, winds shift to the west southwest. In addition to the wind, elevated water levels and high surf are expected to develop south of the Seward Peninsula, and high Surf Advisories are in effect. The highest water is expected early Sunday morning along the Y-K Delta and during the day on Sunday in the Norton Sound Region. Rainfall totals of half an inch to an inch and a half are expected through Monday, with highest amounts south and west of a line from Kaltag to Nikolai. High temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Central and Eastern Interior... Strong southerly winds develop in the Alaska Range this afternoon, as the low in the Bering approaches the West Coast. Gusts up to 60 mph are expected in the passes of the Eastern Alaska Range. A Wind advisory is in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range through Noon on Sunday. There could be areas of fog in valley locations again Sunday morning. Rain begins to spread over the Interior by Sunday morning and continue into the afternoon. Rainfall accumulations around a quarter of an inch expected in the Fairbanks area Sunday, between a quarter and a half an inch from Bettles to Tanana and in the Alaska Range, and less than a quarter of an inch elsewhere. Additional rainfall Monday will drop an additional tenth to a quarter of an inch west and south of a line from Bettles to Delta Junction. High temperatures top out in the 50s and lows drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Another low pressure system moving across the Bering will approach the southwest coast on Tuesday. A front associated with this low pressure system will bring heavy rain to the southwest Interior midweek. Otherwise, overall troughing will maintain unsettled conditions, cooler temps over the north slope and Brooks Range and a chance of precip. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another strong low pressure system will move to near St. Matthew Island on Tuesday. At this time, models indicate that the low will track southeast from there into Bristol Bay. This track would not impact areas from the Yukon Delta north with any type of elevated water, but we will need to watch closely for changes in the forecasted track. .HYDROLOGY... Rivers across the Interior will rise over the next several days as rainfall moves into the river basins. Heavy rain expected over the west coast of 0.50 to 1 inch or more in some locations, that will likely raise small rivers and streams. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. High Surf Advisory for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory for AKZ825. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>810-816-817-851-852-854>856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861. && $$ JK