668
FXAK69 PAFG 092103
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
103 PM AKDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues for the Interior today, along with warm and
windy conditions further north, with Red Flag Warnings still in
effect. Thunderstorm chances increase across parts of the Interior
the next two days, with wetter and cooler weather for the Alaska
Range and far southern Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a massive and sprawling upper level low over the NPAC and
Gulf of AK, with that center currently located south of Kodiak
Island, with heights around 532 dam. There is a skinny upper ridge
which has been displaced north from its position yesterday, now
over the N Interior and Brooks Range. Broad southeast flow
encompasses the Mainland in between the large low to the south and
the aforementioned ridge axis. A remnant thermal trough persists
over the S Interior, all the way from the ALcan to the W
Interior.

Model Discussion...
Models are in fair agreement, and are still changing run to run
with the details of arctic energy dropping south over the Mainland
from the Beaufort Sea. This feature will interact with the remnant
thermal trough and spark of heavy showers and some isolated
thunderstorms tonight and Monday. Overall the forecast favors a
blend of all models for the details of precip, thunder chances,
and temps. Hi-res models were favored for winds.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm day today and then gradual cooling begins tomorrow as showers
and isolated thunderstorm increase in probability across the S
Interior to the Alaska Range. There is still a slight chance for
an isolated thunderstorm today over and near the White Mtns late,
toward evening. Tomorrow, more numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms will be possible. Some showers will be quite heavy,
and it is expected that showers will form into more organized
rainfall as they drift south toward the AK Range, with locally
heavy rainfall possible, especially over the E Alaska Range. This
general pattern persists through Wed, with cooler temps and wetter
weather for the S Interior, with the only dry area over the Yukon
Flats where it will remain in the mid 70s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Warmer weather continues through tomorrow especially over the
Interior, but it will spread over parts of the Seward Peninsula as
well. Blustery N winds continue over the Bering Strait into Tue.
With the warmer weather will also bring thunderstorm chances,
especially from the Yukon Valley to the Delta, and across the E
Seward Peninsula. Some of these storms on Monday may move offshore
into Norton Sound as well with the northeasterly steering flow.
Disturbances will keep moving through the flow on Tue and Wed with
more thunderstorm chances mainly over the Interior, along with
locally heavy showers, especially over the Middle Kusko and Lower
Yukon Valleys.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fog and low stratus, as is typical this time of year, will be
present over much of the Arctic coast the next several days, with
some possible further south toward the northern Brooks Range
during the morning time frames. With a tightening pressure
gradient south of an Arctic high, the North Slope and especially
Arctic coast will see increasing winds from the east to northeast
this afternoon lasting through the next few days. The highest
winds are favored over the western Arctic, where winds of 15 to 30
mph with higher gusts will be likely. Some showers and an
isolated thunderstorm will be possible in the Central and Eastern
Brooks Range with a west-tracking upper low on Monday, with a
lower chance for showers on Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
After Wednesday, the global models and their ensemble suites
continue to slowly build in ridging aloft from the Arctic Coast
and into the Mainland, into Saturday. It does look to warm over
the Interior again, but not necessarily get hot, with the chance
for daily afternoon thunderstorms. Out west, there will be a
closed low lurking nearby which may keep it cooler.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gradually, the hot dry and windy conditions fade the next couple
of days as temps slowly cool and minimum RH levels creep up above
the 20 percent range. The red flag warnings over the N Interior
and S Brooks Range drop out this evening, with the lone holdout
for near critical fire weather conditions being the Yukon Flats
into Tue, where temps will remain in the 70 degree range with
breezy afternoon northeast winds. The other story will be
increased chances for thunderstorms Monday along the thermal
trough over the S Interior all the way to the YK Delta and W
interior. These will be wet storms, with areas of widely scattered
thunderstorms possible. It looks more showery and cooler over the
S Interior Tue and Wed with chances for wetting rains.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Warming temperatures will promote snowmelt, giving the potential
for high water for the Colville, Sag, and Kuparuk rivers and their
tributaries. Recent gage reports along the Sag indicated water
levels slowly falling from their peak Saturday morning, so the
flood advisory has been cancelled. Rising waters levels continue
on the Kuparuk, likely due to an ice jam downstream of the gage
near Deadhorse on the Kuparuk River. We have issued a flood
advisory for that area for the next 36 hours, with minor flooding
possible near the river. There are some ice jams present on the
Colville, which will enhance any flooding threat. Water levels are
expected to crest by the end of this week into the weekend.

The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate plenty of
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures continue to warm
over the next few days, snowmelt could lead to continued high
water for streams in that area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-919-931>935.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-811-812-854-856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher