495
FXAK69 PAFG 012105
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
105 PM AKDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A beautiful day across much of the Interior today with
highs reaching the mid 70s, light winds along with a few showers
and storms. The West Coast comes with highs in the 60s to near 70
in the Interior with isolated showers and storms over the higher
terrain. Otherwise coastal areas away from the Bering Strait coast
will be around the mid 50s to 60 while the Bering Strait Coast
sits around freezing. The North Slope will hang around freezing
with stratus, fog and light snow developing after midnight.
Heavier snow looks to move in tomorrow night with accumulations
likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
The 12Z models initialized well aloft with a front lifting through
the Brooks Range, a shortwave trough dropping south into the North
Slope, a low in the Aleutians and a low in the Gulf of Alaska.
The front over the Brooks Range moves north tonight and interacts
with the trough dropping south over the North Slope resulting in
an outbreak of precipitation tonight, especially south and east of
Utqiagvik. Looking south, the low in the Aleutians will shift east
into the Gulf of Alaska and thrown into Southeast AK with
shortwaves moving north and west through the Interior tomorrow and
next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A beautiful day over the West Coast and Western Interior today.
There will be a few showers and an isolated storm possible over
the higher terrain. Coastal areas remain dry with mixed clouds and
sun over most spots, though the Bering Strait south will have
stratus clouds overhead. Northerly winds will pick up this
afternoon with gale force gusts possible in Kivalina tonight, but
more likely from Shishmaref to the Bering Strait Coast through
St. Lawrence Island tomorrow before weakening overnight. Tomorrow
will be a bit more interesting in the Interior with showers and
storms developing in southwest AK around McGrath by midday then
extend north to Ruby and northeast to the Brooks Range. These
storms gradually move west towards Holy Cross and Huslia late
overnight with mostly rain showers from Ambler south on Monday.
Any thunderstorm can come with lightning, briefly heavy rain,
small hail (<= 1/2 inch in diameter) and erratic wind gusts up to
45 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm and sunny conditions are expected beneath a building ridge.
Isolated thunderstorms will be mainly confined to higher terrain
and much more isolated today than the past few days. On Sunday a
shortwave trough from the east will bring a round of locally heavy
showers and widely scattered thunderstorms along with slightly
cooler temperatures. The area of focus for precipitation and
thunderstorms looks to be from McGrath to Tanana and north along
the Elliott and Dalton Highway corridor. Precipitation amounts
could approach one half inch in areas that see the strongest
storms and/or multiple storms. The Southeast Interior through
Fairbanks looks to be spared by most showers and thunderstorms.
Monday will bring more showers and thunderstorms, with the wetter
pattern continuing through much of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus and patchy fog continue this afternoon along the Arctic
Coast and Plain. Light snow is expected to begin tonight in the
Central Brooks Range as an Arctic trough digs south. A more well
defined convergence zone will develop on Sunday, bringing heavier
snowfall to the Central Brooks Range and accumulating snow as far
north as the Arctic Coast. Expect 2 to 4 inches of snow from
Anaktuvuk Pass to Sag DOT Camp, about 2 to 3 inches north of
there to the Arctic Coast, and up to 6 inches over Atigun Pass.
Northerly winds will also increase in the Passes with gusts up to
35 mph possible Sunday night in Anaktuvuk Pass and gusts to 25
mph in Atigun Pass. This may result in areas of blowing snow, but
temperatures will be relatively mild around 28-32F resulting in a
wet snow and limited blowing/drifting. One interesting, not
necessarily impactful note is there will also be a chance for
thunder-snow Sunday night in Atigun Pass.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near Red Flag conditions are expected today across
the Middle Tanana Valley and Yukon Flats with high temperatures
approaching 75 degrees and minimum relative humidities dropping
into the 20 to 25 percent range. Expecting winds to remain below
15 mph for most of the area, but gusts as high as 35 mph are
possible near and south of Delta Junction through this evening,
then weaken tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are still
expected northeast of Huslia today as shortwave energy from
yesterday remains. Across the rest of the Interior, thunderstorm
activity will be lower beneath a ridge building in from the
northeast.

On Sunday, a shortwave trough from the east will cause increased
thunderstorm activity as well as locally heavy showers. The focus
of the thunderstorms looks to be from McGrath to Tanana and north
along the Elliott and Dalton Highway corridor. Temperatures will
be cooler and RHs a bit wetter on Sunday. Additional shortwaves
from the east embedded in a very persistent pattern will bring
more showers and thunderstorms into next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The water level in Fort Yukon will continue
receding very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue
to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As
temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high
water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-817-850-851-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
&&

$$

Bianco