Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
257 FXAK69 PAFG 031443 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 643 AM AKDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A dynamic weather pattern is in place over Northern Alaska as an Arctic trough drops south over the West Coast with repeated shortwave troughs rotating into the central and eastern Interior from the east. This is bringing a cooling trend to the West Coast and western Interior, continued showers and thunderstorms to the central and eastern Interior, and even snow and possible mixed precipitation along a convergence zone between these features from the central Brooks Range north to the Arctic Coast. Snow and mixed precipitation on the North Slope will diminish Tuesday night, but the rest of the area will see little change. Wednesday appears to be the wettest day across the Interior. && .DISCUSSION... Analysis and Model Discussion...An Arctic trough has begun its trek south and now lies just offshore of Point Lay. A weak ridge continues to extend southwest over the northeast Interior and eastern Brooks Range from Canada. A convergence zone between these two features continues to bring a mix of precipitation from the central Brooks Range north along the Dalton Highway to Deadhorse. Reports of 5 to 10 inches of snow near Toolik Field Station through Sunday evening, though very little snow has accumulated at Atigun Pass. This convergence zone will shift slightly to the west through Monday, though precipitation will continue over much of the same area. The best chance for freezing rain will be near Deadhorse through mid morning today. The Arctic trough will continue south as a closed low down to 700 mb to reach Norton Sound Monday afternoon, the Yukon Delta on Monday night, and St. Paul Island on Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile in the Interior, a number of shortwave troughs will rotate through the flow from the east, bringing showers and thunderstorms. The strongest one appears to arrive on Wednesday, bringing areas of heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms to an area west of Fairbanks and east of Galena. Models are in good agreement on the overall pattern and show slight differences in the placement of precipitation. For this forecast package we will increase PoPs on Tuesday afternoon and overnight into Wednesday for the south slopes of the Brooks Range and western North Slope as southerly upslope flow moves in behind the convergence zone. We will increase PoPs across the Interior on Wednesday afternoon with the arrival of the strong shortwave. We will also expand the area and coverage of thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and add in some southerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes on Wednesday. With so many fine scale features moving through the flow, confidence in precipitation placement is not excellent, but expect some heavy showers each day across the Interior. Central and Eastern Interior...Summer conditions will continue with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Little change is expected until Wednesday, when a more robust shortwave moves into the area from the east. This will bring more widespread showers that may be heavy at times. South winds though Alaska Range Passes will gust to around 30 mph on Wednesday morning as this shortwave moves west. West Coast and Western Interior...Gale force northerly winds continue through the Bering Strait as an Arctic trough drops south over the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected across the entire region today, with slight warming on Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon mainly east of Galena. Elsewhere, partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are expected. North Slope and Brooks Range...Light snow with a chance of freezing rain continues this morning along the Arctic Coast. Light snow fell across Brooks Range passes yesterday, with reports of heavier snow north of the Brooks Range near Toolik Field Station. The freezing rain threat will diminish this afternoon as precipitation turns to rain, but will return overnight as lows drop back down below freezing. Winds along the coast remain onshore at 5 to 15 mph. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect very similar conditions today as what was seen yesterday in terms of winds ,temperatures, and relative humidities, except cooler and wetter in the western Interior. The pattern of shortwaves from the east will continue through most of the week, so showers and afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue. On Tuesday, near Red Flag conditions are expected over the Yukon Flats with dry northeast winds feeding a deep surface low over the Central Interior. At this time, temperatures and winds look to meet criteria, and the pattern is certainly supportive of RHs less than 25% as well. Model guidance continues to largely indicate RHs being 25% or above, but we did nudge the forecast to the drier guidance as we suspect that this will verify. Will continue to monitor as Tuesday approaches. Thunderstorms today will be isolated to widely scattered over most of the central and eastern Interior, with the most coverage expected over the White Mountains and Fortymile Uplands, as well as from Tanana northeast to the south slopes of the Brooks Range. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, though Wednesday will likely be a much wetter day with numerous showers producing more in the way of wetting rain. && .HYDROLOGY...The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808-809. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-811-852-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ805-850-853-854. Gale Warning for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858. Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817. Gale Warning for PKZ856. && $$ CHRIEST