182
FXAK69 PAFG 082213
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 PM AKDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer is here in the Interior, with widespread 70s and low 80s
through the weekend, and warmer temps persisting into Monday. The
southern Interior and parts of the Western Interior will see
increasing chances for thunderstorms Monday turning to cooler
weather and showers for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a sharp upper ridge extending from the Yukon across the
Interior, with heights at the center around 572 dam. A sharp
shortwave trough is moving north to the Gulf Coast, which is part
of a larger upper level complex over the NPAC, with that center
around 527 dam, currently just south of Dutch Harbor. A gale force
994 mb low is moving north across the Gulf with a lee trough north
of the Alaska Range, which is helping to drive strong easterly
winds over the Interior 15 to 30 mph.

Model Discussion...
Models are in very good agreement until Monday evening as the
larger scale flow aloft becomes more affected by easterly waves
moving into the Interior. They also diverge with a weak arctic low
cutting off over the Brooks Range then drifting west. Overall, the
general theme is the same though, with wetter conditions possible
over the S Interior and AK Range Monday night into Tuesday along
with chances for thunderstorms. Overall forecast confidence is
moderately high, with a favored blend of the GFS and ECMWF for
precip and thunder chances, and the NAM nest for winds.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Dry and hot and windy with temps into the 80s today and tomorrow.
Windiest day is today with Interior gusts as high as 40 mph, and
then winds come down a bit tomorrow over the S Interior, but it
will remain breezy from the White Mtns northward all the way
through Monday. There will be a chance for thunderstorms over the
S Interior on Monday as a weak easterly wave passes through, which
will also bring more clouds and slightly cooler temps into
Tuesday, with chances for heavier rains over the Alaska Range and
far S Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Dry and warm with breezy east winds today, then winds weaken a tad
tomorrow with southeast winds developing over the Delta tomorrow.
There will be an outside chance for isolated thunderstorms
tomorrow over the Seward Peninsula and N Interior. There will be a
better chance for isolated thunderstorms and heavy showers Monday
along an axis from the Seward Peninsula and across the Middle
Yukon Valley. A fair amount of uncertainty develops Tue but there
is a chance for more Interior thunderstorms with heavy rain
showers possible over most of the Interior and pushing onto the
Delta.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
High pressure moves offshore and winds turn more northerly and
eventually northeasterly, with winds reaching 15 to 30 mph over
the W Arctic. Stratus and fog will obviously be an issue beginning
tonight and possibly expanding south to the Brooks Range by
tomorrow night. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible
Mon and Tue over the Central and E Brooks Range as a weak upper
level low pass over.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
By Wednesday, there will be a large upper low still over the Gulf
of AK with general easterly flow over the Mainland, which means
cloudier with chances for showers, and slight warm anomalies over
the N Mainland and more seasonal temps over the S Interior. Late
week into the weekend there is a growing signal for ridging to
build over the Mainland with warming temps.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot, dry, and windy today with east winds 15 to 30 mph will
continue tomorrow from the White Mtns northward, but it does look
like winds will be much weaker over the SE Interior to Fairbanks,
so we will be dropping the Red Flag Warning for that area, but
continuing to the north. However, it will still be quite warm and
dry Sunday, with an isolated thunderstorm threat in the evening
across the White Mtns and Fortymile Uplands and Upper Chena Basin.

By Monday, dry and windy conditions will continue over the Yukon
Flats, although temps are coming down slightly with slightly
improving min RH, so it looks to be close to critical fire weather
conditions. We will continue to monitor. The other big story will
be a better chance of thunderstorms, with widely scattered wet
thunderstorms possible

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recently received snowfall present in the Brooks Range / North
Slope area along with warming temperatures will promote snowmelt,
giving the potential for high water for the Colville, Sag, and
Kuparuk rivers and their tributaries. Recent gage reports along
the Sag have reached to near minor flood stage, so we have issued
a flood advisory for the Sag River as a surge of water moves
downstream, which may result in localized erosion. There are some
ice jams present on the Colville, which will enhance any flooding
threat. Water levels are expected to crest by the end of this
week into the weekend.

The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate plenty of
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures continue to warm
over the next few days, snowmelt could lead to continued high
water for streams in that area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-919-928>947-949-952.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ840-844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.

&&

$$

Ahsenmacher