Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
830 FXAK69 PAFG 071248 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 448 AM AKDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Less active day on Friday regarding thunderstorms but still some instability across the Interior to produce Isolated showers or thunderstorms, mostly over the northern Interior. Red flag warnings in effect for the Interior over the weekend due to much warmer and drier conditions. Winds will be gusty on Saturday especially over higher terrain. East winds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. The Interior will warm up to the upper 70s to low 80s in some spots over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Level Analysis... An upper low will over the Aleutians remaining quasi-stationary through Friday. Southerly flow over the Interior will shift more southeasterly on Saturday. High pressure will build over the northern Interior on Saturday, and southeast flow will continue the southern Interior into Sunday. Easterly waves will bring more moisture over the Interior early next week bringing back showers and isolated thunderstorms as the ridge over the Interior breaks down. Central and Eastern Interior... High pressure will build over the Interior on Saturday. Red flag warnings are in effect for the Interior over the weekend due to much warmer and drier conditions. Pressure gradient will tighten over much of the Inteior ramping up the winds Saturday afternoon especially over higher terrain. East winds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph possible. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph over valley locations, including Fairbanks. The Interior will warm up to the upper 70s to low 80s in some spots over the weekend. Easterly Easterly flow will return next week with cooler conditions and the return of showers and isolated thunderstorms. West Coast and Western Interior...A few showers will linger for the western Interior and near the West Coast into Friday night. A weak shortwave will move over the Yukon Delta Coast on Sat and Sunday bringing more showers but most of the west coast will remain dry over the weekend. Warming up over the weekend with mid to upper 70s for the inland areas and western Interior. Fire Weather Watches are in effect for the western Interior over the weekend. North Slope and Brooks Range... Dense fog continues over the eastern North slope this morning. High temperatures will range from the 30s and 40s along the coast and reaching into the 60s in the Brooks Range. Scattered to numerous showers over the eastern Brooks range today thend drier conditions on Sat. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. Extended Forecast...Easterly flow will set up again over the Interior Monday through Wednesday bringing cooler conditions and the return of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The west coast and western Interior will see chances of precip as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Less active day on Friday regarding thunderstorms but still some instability across the Interior to produce Isolated showers or thunderstorms, mostly over the northern Interior. Red flag warnings are in effect for the Interior over the weekend due to much warmer and drier conditions. Winds will be gusty on Saturday especially over higher terrain. East winds around 15 to 25 mph over Valley locations. Gusts to 35 mph over higher terrain. Slightly weaker winds on Sunday. The Interior will warm up to the upper 70s to low 80s in some spots over the weekend. Min RH values around 15 to 25 percent on Saturday and 20 to 30 percent on Sunday. Fire Weather Watches are out for the western Interior for warmer temps and low RH and gusty winds on Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Recently received snowfall present in the Brooks Range / North Slope area along with warming temperatures will promote snowmelt, giving the potential for high water for the Colville, Sag, and Kuparuk rivers and their tributaries. There are some ice jams present on the Colville, which will enhance any flooding threat. Water levels are expected to crest by the end of this week into the weekend. The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate plenty of snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures continue to warm over the next few days, snowmelt could lead to continued high water for streams in that area. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>947-949-952. Fire Weather Watch for AKZ912-919-928>930. PK...None. && $$