574
FXAK69 PAFG 221002
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
202 AM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers on the downtrend over the Interior on Sunday.
An upper low will continue to produce snow showers in the Brooks
Range through Monday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will move into
the Gulf on Monday, and the arctic trough remaining in place over
the west coast, will keep the Interior cool and cloudy with a
chance of precip through Wednesday.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Models in fair agreement with a deepening upper low over the
Brooks Range and a 523 dam low over the Central Aleutians. This
upper low will track eastward into the Gulf of Alaska by
Monday and the Upper low over the Brooks Range will proprogate
to the south through Sunday and deepen to 527 dam near the
Seward Peninsula on Monday. High pressure over the west coast
will retrograde to the west over Russia by Sunday. Troughing
will persist over the State through mid week keeping the Interior
cool and cloudy.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Troughing aloft will keep the Interior cool and on the cloudy
side through mid week. Spotty rain/snow showers will continue to
be possible Sunday through Wednesday. The Pressure gradient
tightens on Sunday, and 925 mb winds pick up from the Northeast
over much of the N Interior. There could be gusts of 20 to 30 mph
over higher terrain on Sunday. Winds near Delta Junction pick up
as well out of the Southeast, but remain below advisory level.
Winds could continue into Monday. Highs in the upper 40s to low
50s through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure keeping things quiet for the most part over the
weekend. Northeastly winds will be gusty through the Bering
Strait and over the coast around 15 to 30 mph. With the colder air
advection, temperatures will steadily continue to drop off and be
on an overall downtrend through the mid part of next week. Upper
low dropping down over the area on Monday will bring some showers
to the W Interior and inland areas on Monday and Tuesday. Highs
in the low 40s over much the coast through Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow showers will become more scattered through Sunday over the
Dalton Highway. The Winter Storm Warning will be allowed to
expire. The weak troughing will keep the possibility of snow
showers going into Tuesday. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
per day is possible with the continued snow shower activity. The
north slope will continue to see areas of stratus and Fog through
the weekend. A weak low will move into the Beaufort Sea on Monday
and could enhance more showers for the Eastern north slope and
Brooks Range. Highs in the upper 30s near the coast and colder in
the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Upper low progged to remain over the west coast through much of
the week, while the Interior remains cloudy and cool with the
threat of Showers. Further out towards the end of the run, the
GFS is showing a strong system that moves into the Gulf of
Alaska for next weekend, but there is still alot of uncertainty
between models at this point in time. Will continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817-850-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-816-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-811-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-807-810-853-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$