272
FXAK69 PAFG 131338
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
538 AM AKDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Interior has cool and wet conditions, except the Northern
Interior which remains warmer and drier, and will trend warmer
and drier from into the weekend. Today, expect scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard
Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated thunderstorms from Chicken
to Anaktuvuk, but they will be high-based with low precip and the
potential for some dry lightning.

The North Slope is sunny and warmer than normal, and will remain
warmer than normal through Fri. The coast sees some fog and
stratus clouds move onshore and persist into Fri. The North Slope
will cool and cloud up over the weekend.

The West Coast is cool and wet with areas of fog, and will remain
cool with areas of fog and a chance of rain into Fri. The West
Coast warms and dries over the weekend.

Surface Pattern...
A trough will move into the Eagle to Coldfoot to Point Lay area
Today, and to Northway to Coldfoot to Anaktuvuk Pass on Fri, and
will remain there into the weekend. The warmest and driest conditions
will remain northeast of this trough.

Strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast will persist into
Fri and then weaken over the weekend.

A vertically stacked low southwest of Gambell will move to the Gulf
of Anadyr and weaken by 4pm Thu, then to 100 NM south of Wrangel
Island as a weaker low by 4pm Fri, and then to 300 NM northwest of
Utqiagvik as an even weaker low by 4pm Sat. A low pressure trough
extending south from this low will move along the West Coast today,
and over NW AK on Fri, and then over the Western North Slope on Sat.
This low and trough will bring isolated to scattered showers and cooler
air north with it. These will also bring southwest wind 25 kt Sat over
NW AK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The long wave pattern consists of a Rex Block with a strong high
north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska and a low over the Gulf of
Alaska. A strong low over the Northern Bering Sea will move over the
Chukotsk Peninsula and another low will move from near
Shemya to the Central Aleutians today. The ridge builds south over
mainland AK on today forming an omega block with the blocking ridge
persisting over mainland AK through the weekend. This will cause a
warming and drying trend over the Interior and North Slope
through Fri while the West Coast sees cooling from the cold low
aloft moving into the area. The North Slope will cool and cloud up
over the weekend while the West Coast warms and dries over the
weekend.

A short wave trough has moved to a Chicken to Denali to Point Hope
line this morning, and to Northway to McGrath to Point Lay by afternoon.
Showers will taper off as the ridge builds south over the trough area.

A second short wave trough will move south to the Arctic Village
east today, and to the SE Interior tonight. This will help set off
isolated PM thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior this afternoon
through this evening.

A third short wave will drop south over the Eastern Interior Fri
PM with a fourth short wave following the track on Sat. These
could bring isolated PM thunderstorms, but due to the warming and
drying air mass they will likely be dry.

With precipitation, models show similar areas through Sat, but the
GFS and ECMWF produce greater coverage and amounts for Fri and
Sat. Given the building ridge on today and Fri and continuation into
the weekend, expect showers to decrease in areal coverage through
Fri.

Today, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from
Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated
thunderstorms from Chicken to Anaktuvuk, but they will be high
based with low precip and the potential for dry lightning.

At the surface models verify well and show similar solutions
through Sat. Winds remain below 25 kt sustained through Fri, with
southwest 25 kt possible Sat over NW AK. Over the Interior winds
should remain below 15 mph sustained through Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and wet conditions over most of the Interior will become
warmer and drier from today into the weekend. Today, expect scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard
Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to
Anaktuvuk, but they will be high based with low precip and the potential
for dry lightning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water on rivers of the Central North Slope such as the
Colville, the Kuparuk and the Sagavanirktok will fall slowly
through the weekend, and then fall more next week. Minor flooding
is possible along these rivers in low lying areas near the coast
the next several days.

Showers along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range, and over the
Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie and Upper Fortymile
River Basins started will continue into today morning. Showers may
be heavy at times. By the time the rain tapers off on today, this will
make a two day rainfall total of between one and two inches with the
heaviest amounts east of Denali Park. This rain could cause rapid
rises on streams and small rivers in steep terrain. People in the Alaska
Range east of Denali Park, and along the Goodpaster, Charlie and
Fortymile Rivers should remain alert to the possibility of heavy rain and
rapidly rising streams and rivers through today.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815.
&&

$$