Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
574 FXAK69 PAFG 221002 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 202 AM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Showers on the downtrend over the Interior on Sunday. An upper low will continue to produce snow showers in the Brooks Range through Monday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will move into the Gulf on Monday, and the arctic trough remaining in place over the west coast, will keep the Interior cool and cloudy with a chance of precip through Wednesday. .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... Models in fair agreement with a deepening upper low over the Brooks Range and a 523 dam low over the Central Aleutians. This upper low will track eastward into the Gulf of Alaska by Monday and the Upper low over the Brooks Range will proprogate to the south through Sunday and deepen to 527 dam near the Seward Peninsula on Monday. High pressure over the west coast will retrograde to the west over Russia by Sunday. Troughing will persist over the State through mid week keeping the Interior cool and cloudy. Central and Eastern Interior... Troughing aloft will keep the Interior cool and on the cloudy side through mid week. Spotty rain/snow showers will continue to be possible Sunday through Wednesday. The Pressure gradient tightens on Sunday, and 925 mb winds pick up from the Northeast over much of the N Interior. There could be gusts of 20 to 30 mph over higher terrain on Sunday. Winds near Delta Junction pick up as well out of the Southeast, but remain below advisory level. Winds could continue into Monday. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s through Tuesday. West Coast and Western Interior... High pressure keeping things quiet for the most part over the weekend. Northeastly winds will be gusty through the Bering Strait and over the coast around 15 to 30 mph. With the colder air advection, temperatures will steadily continue to drop off and be on an overall downtrend through the mid part of next week. Upper low dropping down over the area on Monday will bring some showers to the W Interior and inland areas on Monday and Tuesday. Highs in the low 40s over much the coast through Tuesday. North Slope and Brooks Range... Snow showers will become more scattered through Sunday over the Dalton Highway. The Winter Storm Warning will be allowed to expire. The weak troughing will keep the possibility of snow showers going into Tuesday. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches per day is possible with the continued snow shower activity. The north slope will continue to see areas of stratus and Fog through the weekend. A weak low will move into the Beaufort Sea on Monday and could enhance more showers for the Eastern north slope and Brooks Range. Highs in the upper 30s near the coast and colder in the Brooks Range. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Upper low progged to remain over the west coast through much of the week, while the Interior remains cloudy and cool with the threat of Showers. Further out towards the end of the run, the GFS is showing a strong system that moves into the Gulf of Alaska for next weekend, but there is still alot of uncertainty between models at this point in time. Will continue to monitor. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ809. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817-850-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-816-851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-811-852. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-807-810-853-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853. && $$