565
FXAK69 PAFG 282113
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
113 PM AKDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior through the
weekend. Areas of dense smoke from fires burning is reducing
visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley. Smoke will be in and
out through the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
north and east of Fairbanks. Isolated storms will persist into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

A strong ridge of high pressure aloft remains over the eastern
half of Alaska, & the center has shifted northward to be over the
eastern North Slope. The ridge has weakened slightly today with
temperatures remaining warm to downright hot in some areas. A
strong vertically stacked low will remain in the central Bering Sea.
A number of shortwaves are moving northward between the low and
the ridge this afternoon bringing scattered thunderstorms from the
western North Slope SE to Fort Yukon this afternoon and evening.
Convection on Saturday looks to just be isolated over the eastern
Interior but widely scattered right along the Alcan Border and in
the SE Brooks Range. Models in good agreement through the short
term. The HRRR smoke model showing smoke persisting over the
Interior.

Interior...Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior
through the weekend. Highs in the mid 80s and a few upper 80s over
the Yukon Flats. Areas of dense smoke from fires burning is
reducing visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley. Smoke will be
in and out through the weekend. Dense smoke advisories have been
extended into Saturday. Smoke may thin and visibility may improve
in the afternoon around Fairbanks but become dense again early
morning on Saturday. High pressure builds back in for the weekend
with rising temps back into the 80s, and much lower thunderstorm
activity, with that ridge aloft suppressing thunderstorm
potential. Isolated thunderstorm threat returns over the southern
Interior on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Showers will continue to rotate around the large Bering low along
the West Coast. Isolated overnight thunderstorms will continue
into this morning today over the W Interior to NW Arctic, with
more afternoon thunderstorms mainly over the Upper Kobuk Valley
north to the Brooks Range, with just some isolated spotty thunder
farther south toward the Alaska Range to the Kuskokwim Mtns.


North Slope and Brooks Range...
Another warm day today with more very active thunderstorm
activity, as a thermal low will remain parked over the Brooks
Range. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible from
the W Brooks Range east to Chandalar, with some storms being very
strong and capable of producing very heavy downpours, frequent
cloud to ground lightning, and hail up to half an inch. Northwest
winds will cool temps back down closer to normal values albeit
still warmer than average. On Saturday, the thunderstorm threat
moves Anatuvak Pass to the AlCan border. For now, widely scattered
wet thunderstorms are expected. On Sunday, isolated storms return
over the southern Interior.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
By Monday, a narrow Mainland ridge aloft will still be in place,
but there will be a series of lows which will move overtop that
ridge, gradually weakening it and bringing wetter onshore flow to
the NW Arctic and down the West Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, with
those fronts moving inland by the latter half of the week. This
should allow for some relief from hot temps and may even bring
rain into the Interior.




Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for lightning for the Yukon Flats
and SE Brooks Range where we expect scattered wet thunderstorms,
though an isolated dry storm is possible. Temperatures will cool
only slightly and RHs will moderate. On Saturday, the
thunderstorm threat moves Anatuvak Pass to the AlCan border. For
now, widely scattered wet thunderstorms are expected. On Sunday,
isolated storms return over the southern Interior.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms over the Brooks Range today
may feed into faster moving streams and cause rapid rises, which
will remain high into this weekend. Glacial fed rivers including
the Tanana are beginning to rise as warming temperatures lead to
increased high elevation snowmelt.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ911-933.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-850.
&&

$$

JK