184
FNAK79 PAFG 201431
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for 119 McDonald...Yukon Dispatch Center
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
631 AM AKDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 AKDT on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A thermal low pressure trough north of the fire today, will move
south over the fire on Fri, and then south of the fire on Fri night
and Sat. These thermal troughs will serve to focus instability
and convective showers, with the locus of convection shifting
gradually southwest over the next several days. This trough will
cause winds to turn NE on Fri PM and push the smoke south of
the fire starting Fri afternoon, with those conditions continuing
into the weekend.

An upper level trough will approach the fire from the southeast
this afternoon and move over the fire tonight. This will bring
numerous showers with wetting rain tonight into early Fri.

Will see a drying and warming trend and reduction in number of
thunderstorms over the weekend.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Areas of dense smoke.
                    Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    morning. Numerous showers and widely scattered
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................47 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......West 5 mph.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 6 mph.
Inversion burnoff...9 AM.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Areas of dense smoke.
                    Numerous showers with widely scattered thunderstorms in
                    the evening, then scattered showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................47 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest 5 mph.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph.
Inversion setup.....11 pm.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Areas of dense smoke
                    in the morning. Scattered rain showers through
                    the day. Isolated thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................47 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light becoming northeast 7 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 6 mph.
Inversion burnoff...11 AM.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Areas of smoke
in the afternoon. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
North winds around 6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Areas of smoke in the evening. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BRADER
Requested by...Casey Lasota
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416117.12/AFG
.DELDT 06/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0