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FNAK79 PAFG 221948
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Ivy Creek #156...BLM-AFS
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1148 AM AKDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 AKDT on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A broad area of high pressure will influence the area for the next
few days. This high pressure paired with waves of energy moving
north through the high could create an area of afternoon
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could drop 0.1" to 0.2" of
rain. We will begin to see a warming trend going into next week
with temperatures going into the mid to upper 70s with RH values
of 35 to 45% with good recovery overnight. Today looks to be the
best chance of rain for the next couple of days. With chances
lowering to 20% or below tomorrow.
.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Widespread showers and
                    isolated thunderstorms.
CWR.................52 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph.
Inversion burnoff...10:00 AM

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Numerous rain showers
                    and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    scattered rain showers overnight.
CWR.................17 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph.
Inversion setup.....9:00 PM

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers through the day. Isolated
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................18 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......North winds at 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 12 mph.
Inversion burnoff...2:00 PM

$$
Forecaster...Dennis
Requested by...Jeff Ennenga
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416417.3/AFG
.DELDT 06/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0