990
FXAK67 PAJK 131350
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
550 AM AKDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SHORT TERM...Drier weather with lingering chances for a few
showers continues through the day on Thursday with significant
breaks in the cloud cover once more anticipated. Offshore flow
will keep precipitation from a low S of the panhandle at bay,
though it will also be the herald of an easterly wave which will
move across the Coast Mountains Thursday night through much of
Friday. This wave will bring convective showers to the northern
half of the panhandle, likely including the Icy Strait Corridor.
Some of these showers will likely generate outflow winds, leading
to gusty conditions. Cannot entirely rule out the possibility of a
few embedded thunderstorms, but for now think that this is the
less likely option - late night/morning time frame will reduce the
impacts of diurnal heating. Better chances for thunderstorms will
likely emerge over the weekend. For more details see the long
term forecast discussion.

The forecast remains largely on track. The primary changes made to
the forecast were to increase the coverage of the easterly wave to
reflect the uncertainty in its exact track over the coast
mountains, along with a few minor changes to wind speed and
direction for some of the inner channels. Still largely anticipate
winds of 10 to 15 kt across most of the inner channels through
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...For the end of the week, we expect to have a low
continuing to meander around the BC coast and southern panhandle
that should bring some showers to parts of the panhandle. This
could also bring some thunderstorms to the border and areas around
the border for the weekend. As this low slowly moves out of the
area, high pressure will remain off to the west allowing for NW
flow across the gulf. Temperatures across the panhandle are also
expected to respond to the mild weather with some increasing
warmer temperatures as well. This will make things feel more like
summer instead of feeling like spring. For the extended into next
week, conditions are expected to be more likely warmer and drier
for most of the panhandle according to the Climate Prediction
Center.

Big changes to the long term forecast today are a continued decrease
in winds across the area as well as the introduction of a few
possible thunderstorms during the day on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Basically rinse and repeat for good flying conditions
from Wednesday into Thursday as cloud cover remains generally
scattered or high enough to maintain VFR. With this clearing, sea
breezes are expected to pick up in the morning and continue through
the day before settling overnight. For the Icy Strait corridor and
up Lynn Canal, expecting an easterly wave to bring showers in from
BC which may lead to isolated CIGs of 3000 ft or less along with
some drops in VIS depending on rain rates. Otherwise, rest of the
panhandle is expected to remain in the clear for the TAF period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...STJ

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