Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
442 FXAK67 PAJK 052305 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 305 PM AKDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/ Another active day as the strong low from yesterday has moved farther north through the gulf. Gusty and wet conditions are the main rule of the day for most areas. Gusts have been as high as 42 mph at Juneau today, and small craft winds of 25 kt have been wide spread over the central and northern inner channels. Rain has also been mostly constant, but light for the most part. Generally the short range forecast is mainly for improving conditions over the next 36 hours as the low in the gulf gradually weakens and moves away to the NW and ridging builds over the panhandle. The winds will drop off first with most areas dropping below 20 kt by late tonight. Northerly Lynn and Skagway will hang on to the winds a bit longer into Thursday morning. The rain will take a little longer to leave the area, but will be diminishing from SE to NW through Thursday night with some breaks developing in the cloud cover as well. With the breaks in the clouds some patchy fog is not out of the question for various areas of the panhandle late Thursday night. .LONG TERM.../ Friday through Monday / Dry to start as ridge moves through the area with a large low moving north into the Gulf of Alaska. The associated front lifts into eastern gulf and towards the panhandle Saturday followed by a quick ridge and what looks like a secondary development on several solutions lifting another short wave north and this one is presently tracking into the panhandle instead of past it. A push of warmer air will track into the panhandle as 850 mb temps finally getting into the positives with temps of 6 to 10 C by Saturday. The biggest change was the adjustment of late Sunday to Monday to account for the secondary wave moving north and into the panhandle. Have added it in, however, will need to watch for the QPF and Winds. Did bump winds up but not more than Small craft outside. This may be needed to updated to higher values if it maintains in place and strengthens. && .AVIATION...Rain shower intensity and higher winds diminish as current front slowly exits the area. The 30 to 40 kt gusts with some LLWS drop off by the early evening. Ceilings have been between 2000 and 5000 kt and visibility between 3 to 6SM with more variability due to the northerly shower progression. Overnight winds drop to less than 10kt and remain there for about the next 48 hours. Cloud cover overnight likely to drop to 1500 ft at times but expecting more break and decks to lift into the morning hours. Favorable flying conditions last into the weekend. && .MARINE...Active marine weather today with wide spread small craft winds to 25 kt across the central and northern inner channels and nearshore waters of the NE gulf. There is also a brief area of min gale force expected this evening near Cape Fairweather. Seas are also elevated in the gulf with 10 to 12 ft seas reported in by the eastern gulf buoys today. All of these conditions should be improving through tonight and tomorrow with most areas below small craft conditions for both seas and wind by Thursday morning. Winds and seas are then expected to stay low into Friday. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-036-641>644- 651-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAL LONG TERM....Bezenek AVIATION...Fritsch Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau