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FXAK67 PAJK 042320
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Wednesday / The second frontal band
associated with the low center currently off the coast of Baranof
Island is working its way northward. Gusty winds and moderate rain
showers accompany this front with winds expected to just touch
below gale force. While weaker than originally intended, likely
will still see gale force gusts in Clarence Strait.

For flooding potential, as the second front moves northward,
heavier rainfall rates will work its way with it. While no
flooding is expected, there is the potential for river stages to
be just below bankfull.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...
Overview: Rain showers and winds continue to diminishing early
Thursday as remnants of previous front move out. Dry period as ridge
builds in. Increasing likelihood that another low will enter the AK
Gulf Saturday further to the east which brings in more rain and
increased winds.

The gulf low continues to pull back towards the Aleutian chain SE AK
changes over the a dry period with calmer winds. High pressure ridge
over the region develops Thursday into Friday. Warmer air moves in
with 850 mb temps finally getting into the positives with temps of 6
to 10 C by Saturday. By the weekend there is the return of 500 mb
low extending from the west. At the surface better indication for
the development of a 985 mb gale force low and the eventual track
into the AK Gulf from the south. Ensembles have better trend of the
low center being further east but definitely not as strong as the
operational GFS, which has been running a bit on the high side.
However the GFS is further west than ECMWF, Canadian or most
ensembles. The week continues with a an upper level low and series
of surface features tracking into the gulf keeping a wet weather
pattern going into the long range. Main forecast change was getting
the low for Saturday and Sunday in.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Wednesday afternoon/...Thunderstorm activity
across SEAK this afternoon prompted some significant TAF
amendments that will carry over into the early portion of the 00Z
TAF set. As with all convective activity strong enough to produce
thunderstorms, there will be significant turbulence in and around
the larger convective cells. LLWS concerns over the southern
Panhandle this evening will shift north over the next 24 hours but
also diminish in strength. The gulf coast from Cape Fairweather
to C ape Suckling will also be a turbulent ride below 5000 ft due
to the close proximity of the low responsible for all this
excitement. Overall flight conditions expected to remain above
1000/3 for the period, but watch out for reduced VSBY in heavier
showers.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...FRITSCH

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