093
FXAK67 PAJK 032207
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
207 PM AKDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Monday night / A strong spring to summer
storm developing will move into the southern gulf with a center in
the upper 970 mb range. The system has also absorbed remains of a
former tropical system (Tropical Storm Ewiniar) into so will add
a heftier punch of moisture to the system that will catch just the
southern portion of the panhandle a good portion seems to headed
in British Columbia. Do not expect the main push of the front
until the tonight period and into Tuesday.

Expect this system to play out in two parts: the initial front
with mainly E-SEerly winds, and a secondary front with a larger
southerly component. The first, arriving tonight, has the southern
panhandle seeing gusts up to 45 mph and gales over Clarence Strait.
After a brief lull, the second wrap of the system will move up
from the south, bringing another round of gales and 45 mph gusts.
There is the potential (around 40%) to see gusts higher than
45mph, particularly near the Ketchikan and Metlakatla area during
the second wrap.

Will be watching stream levels for the southern panhandle and with
the larger rainfall amounts there ( 24 sea level estimate is 1 to
2 inches ) solid rises should be seen. Largest QPF totals are
currently thought to be around the Ketchikan area and the SE
portion of PoW Island. The present thinking is that flooding is
not anticipated. In the northern panhandle on Tuesday into
Wednesday, however, may see some river rises particularly on the
Chilkat River. As a bulk of the moisture moves up the panhandle,
enhanced rainfall in the Chilkat Basin combined with snow levels
greater than 5000 ft will encourage enhanced flow and higher water
levels. At this time, water levels look to reach just below
action stage.



.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/...
Overview: Rain showers and winds diminishing as Tuesday low and
associated front track to the NW and weaken. Dry period as ridge
builds in. Watching for next system entering the AK Gulf Saturday
which has potential to move in more rain and increased winds.

As the secondary wrap front moves northward the entire Panhandle
will have showers with some moderate accumulations and southerly and
easterly winds in the 15 to 20 kt range. Previous days small craft
and gale force winds to the south diminish. Some minor model
differences on when the Tuesday gale force low will dissipate as it
moves into the NE Gulf with GFS holding onto winds/PoP for a longer
time. Regardless as this system continues to pull back towards the
Aleutian chain SE AK changes over the a dry period with calmer
winds. High pressure ridge over the region develops Thursday into
Friday. Warmer air moves in with 850 mb temps finally getting into
the positives with temps of 6 to 10 C by Saturday. By the weekend
there is the return of 500 mb low extending from the west. At the
surface watching for the development of a 985 mb gale force low and
the eventual track into the AK Gulf from the south. Operational
models are in poor agreement on the track of the low with some
keeping it more to the west and into the interior while ensembles
just have a broad low over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Marine layer kept ceilings for the southern panhandle
around 1000 ft this morning and will continue and is expected to
break up through the afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions for the
rest of the panhandle as showers diminish through the afternoon
and evening. Storm coming up from the south late Monday night will
bring moderate rain and reduction in ceilings to 2500 ft or less
for the southern panhandle, spreading northward through the day
Tuesday. LLWS of 35+ kt out of the SE can be expected with the
initial frontal passage through the southern panhandle, primarily
affecting Ketchikan and PoW. Elevated surface winds to continue
throughout the day Tuesday for southern panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...Marine forecast is mainly focused on the storm for Mon
night through Tuesday night. Winds in the extreme SE Gulf and
over the southern inner channels, especially Clarence Strait, have
been increased to min gale force for Monday night as the initial
frontal band moves in late. Those winds are expected to diminish a
little down to 25 to 30 kt by Tuesday morning but will return to
gales Tuesday afternoon. Winds are expected to diminish late
Tuesday night and through Wednesday as the main system moves
northward. Central inner channels and NE gulf likely will not see
elevated winds from this system until during the day on Tuesday,
and even then it will only be around 25 kt at max. 30 kt winds
will then transition to the northern gulf Wed with diminishing
winds for the rest of the area by that point. Seas will be
elevated with this storm possibly reaching 15 ft for the SE gulf
and up to 10 ft or 11 ft for southern Clarence Strait on Tuesday
before slowly diminishing.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ328.
     Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-661.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-642>644-651-662>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...STJ

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