Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
886 FXAK67 PAJK 232304 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 304 PM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ Showery pattern still in the works for most of the panhandle through Monday night. Currently showers are rather widely dispersed with mostly the central panhandle seeing the most frequent showers. Winds have been rather light as well with 15 kt being the highest observed. Chances of showers are expected to continue for most areas through the short range as E flow aloft and slight onshore flow at low levels keeps the threat of showers possible. One feature of note is an easterly short wave that will be moving across the central panhandle Sunday night into Monday that will bring a period of enhanced showers and also will be the feature that keeps a chance of showers around into Monday night. Guidance has moved the position of this feature slightly northward (more aimed at Petersburg northward to Juneau) and delayed it compared to yesterday so adjusted forecast a little to account for that shift. Winds are expected to remain low through the short range period with no strong features of note. Highest winds will likely be near stronger showers and with the usual afternoon sea breeze circulations. .LONG TERM...Continuing from the short range, the extended forecast once again remains relatively unchanged with lingering showers diminishing into Tuesday, followed by a warming and drying trend. Models continue to come into agreement for a surface ridge to build in over the gulf which will bring clearing skies to the inner channels and overall warmer surface temperatures due to abundant summer sunshine and warmer temperatures at 850 mb. High temperatures in general are set to reach the upper 60s and low to mid 70s for a majority of the panhandle in the latter half of the week. This will also lead to generally light winds overall throughout the panhandle. With low pressure developing during daytime over BC, there remains a slight chance for showers to develop but are expected to struggle to make it past the Coast Mountains. Expect the highest winds with the usual sea breeze circulations in the afternoon and evening hours, such as Taku Inlet. Being on the downstream side of the ridge, the exception to otherwise clearer skies would be any marine layer potentially moving into coastal communities which in turn could limit daytime warming. As is often the case, model guidance is not in full agreement on the longevity of the blocking ridge in the upper levels and subsequent surface high in the northern gulf. The strength and position of this high pressure over the northern gulf will strongly influence when more organized unsettled weather will make its way back into the panhandle. Ensemble guidance is leaning towards bringing a system into the southern gulf sometime Friday/Saturday. Depending upon its strength and track, this could cause easterly showers to develop and propagate over the southern panhandle during this time. && .AVIATION...Clouds were the main cause for any aviation concerns today. But even then, conditions were mainly high-end MVFR to VFR today. Visibility was a bit lower in some places early this morning, but conditions improved quickly and have held at 10 miles ever since. Wind speeds got a little stronger in Skagway today but other TAF sites have been at 5 to 10 knots or less. Going forward, exiting area of low pressure south of the panhandle should keep the low clouds in place with some isolated showers dotting the landscape. Most areas should see conditions more-or-less remain steady through the overnight with some improvement late tomorrow morning. && .HYDROLOGY...The Chilkat River continues to run right around minor flood stage today and is expected to continue to fluctuate right around minor flood stage into the early part of the week. Temperatures aloft are expected to remain mostly high and are even expected to increase later in the week as clouds depart the area leading to more runoff from high elevation snow melt. As such the river is expected to remain near or above minor flood stage for the next few days at least. The result is that the Flood Advisory has been extended again for the Chilkat. It now ends at 7 pm Wednesday and may be extended further in the coming days depending on how much snow is left to melt in the upper reaches of the basin. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAL LONG TERM...STJ AVIATION...GJS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau