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Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
926 AM AKDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New 18z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/
Weak surface low still lingering just off of Baranof Island this
morning is still bringing some rainfall to the central and
southern panhandle this morning though rates have been light. The
other feature of note is an upper level low situated over the
northern inner channels that is very evident on satellite imagery
this morning. Winds are rather light with most areas 15 kt or
less.

That upper low will be the bringer of change as it slides
southeast across the panhandle today. It has already cleared a lot
of the lower level clouds from the northern panhandle this
morning and as it moves southeast the easterly flow in its wake
will do the same for the lower and mid level clouds and precip for
the rest of the panhandle. Expect most areas to be dry with less
cloud cover by this evening.

Tonight we will mainly be looking at marine layer low clouds
forming over a good portion of the gulf. Boundary layer RH
guidance indicates that these clouds will likely not make much
headway into the northern inner channels tonight (likely only
getting to Gustavus) due to some offshore flow there, but the
southern inner channels may see low cloud advance as far as
Wrangell, Petersburg, and Clarence Strait due to more onshore flow
in that area. Also with the clearer skies and low winds tonight
some fog is likely for the panhandle especially for the central
and southern areas where the atmosphere has not had a chance to
dry out from recent rains yet.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/...

Key messages:
- Dry and partly cloudy conditions through the week
- Potential for rain to return Thursday and Friday
- Warming temperatures mid week

Details: Ridging moving north through the gulf will push the
previous low out of the panhandle and set up for drier weather
Monday. Clouds are expected to linger through the week, though the
potential for skies to clear out keeps growing every day. The
panhandle is expected to see partly cloudy conditions for much of
the week, though periods of more or less clearing are possible
throughout the day. Typically after there has been sufficient
surface heating a marine boundary layer may develop, bringing
clouds back to the northern panhandle. The southern panhandle will
continue to get more and more clear through the week, with
outflow winds picking up to moderate to fresh breezes coming out
of Clarence Strait. Clearing skies and warmer temperatures aloft
should allow for temperatures to rise near 70 degrees at the
surface for a majority of the panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the highest chances for the southern panhandle and
communities in the inner channels. These temperatures could be
offset in many areas by the development of an afternoon sea
breeze. In the interior, Hyder could even see temperatures reach
near 80 degrees during this time.

A disorganized surface level low with associated upper level
troughing looks to bring precipitation back to the northern
panhandle Thursday, spreading south through Friday. Model spread
leaves much to be desired at this point, with many aspects of this
system varying from run to run including timing and associated
precipitation amounts. The GFS depicts a more organized system
that will send a stronger frontal band over the northern panhandle
with lots of precipitation, while most other models stay
relatively dry and calm Thursday. Friday`s condition remains
dependent on this track; if the system reaches the panhandle
Thursday morning that could mean Friday would be more dry, vs if
Thursday is clear Friday could receive the precip instead. Stay
tuned for further updates as we go through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION... (18z TAFS)
VFR flight conditions prevail across the the N panhandle TAF
sites this morning, along and north of the Icy Strait Corridor.
Anticipating similar VFR flight condition to continue through the
afternoon with predominant clearing skies. For southern panhandle
TAF sites, upper level low continues to push down the eastern Gulf
coast, resulting in general MVFR conditions along and south of a
line from Petersburg over to Sitka with ceilings AoB 3500ft.
Similar conditions will continue through mid morning as the low
remains in the gulf and high pressure ridging slowly builds in its
place. As high pressure builds, northerly flow over the southern
panhandle will allow for gradually improving conditions for S
Panhandle TAF sites with CIGS AoA 5000ft by 00z to 04z this
evening. By early Monday morning, expecting development of marine
layer and fog as clearing skies and weak winds persist, reducing
CIGs and Visbys by 10z to 15z Monday morning.

Winds should remain around 10kts or less, but potential for an
isolated gust up to 20kts possible this afternoon across the N
panhandle under clearing skies. Windiest conditions through
Tuesday afternoon expected at Skagway, with sustained winds up to
15kts and gusts up to 25kts possible, decreasing into Sunday
evening. No LLWS concerns through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: As the incoming system hits the panhandle and weakens,
expect moderate to fresh northerly breezes along Baranof Island
and the NE Gulf coast. Special mention to Cross Sound, as a tip
jet developing will provide the highest magnitude wind speeds for
the northern half of the coastline in our AOR. In the southern
panhandle, there is the possibility of a short lived gale at the
entrance to Clarence Strait due to some terrain influences
(barrier jet), but not expecting anything as drastic, with a swift
change to westerly fresh breezes as the cold front pushes
eastward into the panhandle.

Inside: Lynn Canal has been stubborn today to become light as a
result of light troughing in the Yukon, but the gradient is
expected to relax in the coming hours. Otherwise, southern
Stephens Passage, Icy Strait, and Chatham Strait have all shift
north to northeast and have begun to increase, reacting to the
incoming low pressure off the coast of Baranof Island. Expect
speeds to increase to around a moderate breeze before relaxing
overnight. In Clarence and Sumner Strait, fresh to strong breezes
are expected to pick up shortly in response to the warm front
extending out from the low pressure. Looking towards Sunday,
expecting comparatively warmer temperatures and sea breezes to
develop. This means that Icy Strait, Point Couverden, Point
Craven, and Lynn Canal are expected to increase up to 15-20 knots.

A marine layer could develop tomorrow evening, causing changes in
wind speed in Icy Strait and visibility impacts to the outer
coast and entrances to the inner waters; however confidence is low
at this time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAL

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