652
FXAK67 PAJK 202354
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKDT Mon May 20 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Tuesday night / The remains of the surface
low can be seen in the satellite imagery spinning off of Cross
Sound this afternoon. The low is expected to continue to weaken
and dissipate while moving into the central panhandle. Expect the
showers to taper off by morning.

Surface ridge builds of the central and eastern gulf overnight and
into Tuesday. So should see some clearing sky conditions. Which
will create havoc for high and low temperatures, and morning fog
development. A frontal band extending from Norton Sound to Kodiak
Island and then southward will move eastward to the central gulf
nearing 140W longitude by late Tuesday night.


.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Saturday night / Active pattern set
to continue for SE Alaska for the remainder of the week. The next
system will move into the northern Gulf on Wednesday, with a
weakening front making its way towards the panhandle Wednesday
afternoon and slowly push inland through Thursday. While not an
impressive system, tightening of the pressure gradient near shore
will still lead to winds of 25 to 30 kt for the Northern and NE gulf
coast for a time Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Consequently not expecting to see any significant wave height
increases.

Total precipitation from this system has been trending upwards
slightly, but overall is still expected to be light to moderate by
SE AK standards, with most rain coming Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Storm total QPF for the panhandle ranges from around 0.75
inches for the northern Gulf coast to around 0.5 inches from the Icy
Strait Corridor southward. Once the rain moves through and
accompanying low diminishes into a weak open trough, skies are set
to clear later in the day Thursday and into Friday. This will allow
for potential fog development in areas which can see maximized
radiational cooling in the overnight hours along with light winds.

Clearing skies on Friday means warmer temperatures once more, with
daytime highs rebounding back to upper 50s and near 60 for the
majority of the panhandle heading into Saturday. Unfortunately
unsettled weather looks to move in once more for the second half of
the holiday weekend with increasing rain chances Saturday afternoon
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Tuesday afternoon/...Diminishing shower
activity and improving CIGs/VSBY from north to south. Reduced
visibility to less than 3 sm due to fog in locations that clear
out before sunrise, but conditions not expected to persist past
mid morning. Most of SEAK should scatter out by Tuesday
afternoon. Light winds and no turbulence below the flight levels
apart from the far northern inner channels in the evening and then
again beginning late Tuesday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-642>644-651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau