408
FXAK67 PAJK 262313
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKDT Sun May 26 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/...Precipitation is there, but
not as heavy as originally expected. Did not really curtail the
PoP extent but did decrease the QPF values a fair bit and went
with showers or scattered showers vice periods of rain. No
significant changes to winds or temperatures and a very compact
low off the outer coast will continue to track northwest, having
no impact on winds or waves on the inside.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Friday/ By Tuesday the unsettled
weather over the panhandle looks to be largely coming to an end as
the vertically stacked low in the Gulf continues to dissipate.
Guidance is continuing to lean more and more towards a break in
precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday with a surface ridge
building in over the panhandle. While this will lead to a shift to
onshore flow, being on the northern downstream side of the ridge
should mean any precipitation that does develop due to orographic
effects along the coast should be minimal and any showers should
be light and short lived.

After this short period of relatively dry weather, model guidance
continues to converge on a well established front pushing across the
Alaskan Gulf and impacting SE AK Friday. Some deterministic models
have tried to throw a short wave disturbance towards the panhandle
ahead of the front, but this would likely just mean a period of
potential higher shower activity for the outer coast later in the
day Thursday. With the advancing front, winds in the Gulf will
likely switch to be more out of the SE by Thursday afternoon While
exact timing remains uncertain this far out, ensemble means are
trending toward winds of at least 25 kt likely along the outer coast
ahead of the front with gales not out of the question. Depending
upon the orientation of the boundary, this would then likely lead to
close to small craft conditions for parts of the inner channels as
the front begins to push inland. This however will also depend on
the overall strength and positioning of the parent low feature in
the northwestern Gulf. Overall this will likely lead to a wet and
breezy end to the week for the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Sunday night/...Flight conditions 1000/3 or
better with diminishing low level turbulence as a compact low off
the outer coast continues to track northwest away from the coast.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-643-644-663-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fritsch
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...Fritsch

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