111
FXAK67 PAJK 051246
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
446 AM AKDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...One more day of active weather for the panhandle
through Wednesday, before showers diminish on Thursday, with drier
conditions by Thursday evening into Friday.

A vertically stacked low continues to spin over the Gulf as of the
time of writing. Model guidance has the low progged at 533
decameters as of the time of writing, with the low expected to
steadily occlude and weaken through the day as it steers off to
the NW. Before the low fully departs however, some additional
waves will move through the panhandle. Operational model guidance
has currently progged the primary low too far to the W, and so
think that said waves will likely have stronger winds than
previously anticipated. Continue to anticipate moderate to heavy
rainfall rates (some areas could see in excess of an inch of
rain), but while some rivers may approach bankful, no flooding is
expected at this time.

Conditions will improve Wednesday night onwards as the low
departs, and the onshore flow weakens. The forecast remains
largely on track, with the primary changes being to increase wind
speeds across many land-based locations and for many of the inner
channels. Strong wind are expected at times for places like Juneau
and Skagway, along with elevated winds for maritime areas.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...
Overview: Rain showers and winds continue to diminishing early
Thursday as remnants of previous front move out. Dry period as ridge
builds in. Increasing likelihood that another low will enter the AK
Gulf Saturday further to the east which brings in more rain and
increased winds.

The gulf low continues to pull back towards the Aleutian chain SE AK
changes over the a dry period with calmer winds. High pressure ridge
over the region develops Thursday into Friday. Warmer air moves in
with 850 mb temps finally getting into the positives with temps of 6
to 10 C by Saturday. By the weekend there is the return of 500 mb
low extending from the west. At the surface better indication for
the development of a 985 mb gale force low and the eventual track
into the AK Gulf from the south. Ensembles have better trend of the
low center being further east but definitely not as strong as the
operational GFS, which has been running a bit on the high side.
However the GFS is further west than ECMWF, Canadian or most
ensembles. The week continues with a an upper level low and series
of surface features tracking into the gulf keeping a wet weather
pattern going into the long range. Main forecast change was getting
the low for Saturday and Sunday in.

&&

.AVIATION...A low in the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep
persistent rain and overcast skies overspreading across the
panhandle through the TAF period. Anticipating low-end VFR down to
MVFR flight conditions through today for much of the area, with
CIGs bouncing between 1500 and 5000 ft and intermittent VSBYs down
to 4SM within the heaviest showers. Winds will remain elevated
through the period for northern TAF sites, including PAJN, with
sustained winds up to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts through at least
00z. Some LLWS will be persist across the northern panhandle TAF
sites, but not high enough confidence to include in TAF at this
time. Winds across the southern panhandle TAF sites will decrease
after 00z to less than 10kts with potential for IFR cigs
developing by 04z.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft conditions will remain prevalent across the
outer coastal waters through Wednesday night, and spread through
the day on Wednesday across the inner channels. The strongest
winds will likely be in the southern inner channels. Anticipate
winds to begin diminishing Wednesday night, though Lynn Canal may
hold out longer.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this afternoon through this evening for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-641>644-651-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM

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