618
FXAK67 PAJK 260002
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 PM AKDT Sat May 25 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/...Widespread periods of rain
that were observed today will continue through this short term
forecast period for much of Southeast Alaska. Still expecting the
far northern inner channels and northeast gulf coast to have the
best chance for at least a little dry weather this weekend.
Meanwhile, am also still expecting the southern inner channels to
receive the most rain with up to two inches by Monday morning.
With no meaningful breaks in the clouds, look for Sunday`s highs
to be once again in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...The active weather pattern continues through the
first half of the week, though a break may be possible Wednesday
and Thursday.

Aloft, an area low pressure over the Gulf will occlude and weaken
as it meanders slowly to the SE. Waves of precipitation rotating
around the decaying low will continue to move through the area
until a more offshore synoptic pattern is established as the low
moves S of the panhandle. A period of drier weather will
subsequently be possible Tuesday night through much of Thursday
though the cloud deck and a few showers will likely linger in
some locations. Beyond Thursday, operational guidance is
increasingly favoring the idea of a strong frontal band moving
into the panhandle on Friday, but confidence remains low on
timing and the location of the system`s parent low.

Main forecast changes were to refine the anticipated timing of the
potential drier weather for the middle of the week and add some
additional detail in the wind forecast prior to this point.


&&

.AVIATION...Marginal visual conditions with CIGs between 1000 and
5000 ft. Precipitation may reduce VSBY down to 3 sm at times. Low
level turbulence most likely over the southern half of the
panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft winds over the eastern gulf from Cape
Spencer north to Cape Suckling. Hot spots on the inside include
northern Lynn Canal (of course), Young Bay, and Clarence Strait
with localized winds 25 to 30 kts. Elsewhere, 10 to 20 kts at
times on the inside.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-662>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...Fritsch
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...Fritsch

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