259
FXAK67 PAJK 072255
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Tue May 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...Rather active pattern going into the middle of the
week as the main core of the jet stream will be aimed right at
us for much of the short range period. This translates to a
couple of strong, for this time of year, storms taking aim at the
panhandle over the next few days.

Storm number one is slated to start impacting the area this
evening and mainly will be a wind producer. Gale force winds are
expected for much of the gulf and southern inner channels tonight
while gusty winds to 40 or 50 mph are likely for the southern
panhandle and outer coastal areas. Low chance of higher gusts in
areas exposed to the S and SE but they should be isolated and
infrequent if they do occur. Expected rainfall will not be much
mainly around a half an inch to an inch in total through early
Wednesday. Behind the system, westerly winds of 25 to 30 kt will
take over across the gulf for Wednesday and may bring more gusty
winds (out of the S and SW this time) for the outer coast.

Into Wed night, system number two will be starting to move into
the area. Winds across the gulf will be starting to pick up again
after midnight Wed night. Not as much wind expected out of this
system with mostly 25 to 30 kt winds across the gulf. Rainfall
however, will be increasing in intensity across the northern half
of the panhandle late Wednesday night. Integrated Vapor Transport
forecasts have values in the 500 to 700 Kg/ms range aimed at the
northern panhandle which is a minor to moderate atmospheric river
so the rainfall may be heavy at times late Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term period, we will expect to
see very wet weather across the northern and central panhandle.
Areas from Sitka northward to the Northeast Gulf coast near
Glacier Bay are expected to see the heaviest precipitation from
this event. Current rainfall estimates with this system have 1 to
2 inches of rain falling during this event. While this amount of
rain is a lot for this time period and could break daily
precipitation records, no major impacts are expected with the
drier conditions we have had as well as rivers starting at lower
flows. The southern panhandle will get in on some of the rain as
the main band shifts to the south Thursday night into Friday
morning. But amounts across the south are expected to remain lower
than across the northern panhandle. After this system moves
through, we will see a brief break across the panhandle as high
pressure moves across the gulf for Friday and Saturday. This break
will be short though as the next system will be pushing through
the gulf and into the panhandle starting Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. By the time we get to the start of next week, the
active weather looks to continue with onshore flow remaining in
place for SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION...Variable flight conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR
across the panhandle this early afternoon with rain showers moving
through the area. Winds and wind gusts are increasing as a strong
weather front moves over the eastern gulf with gusts up to 30kts
near pakt,pahn and pajn. These will increase to be near 35 to 40 kt
along with increasing LLWS from the southeast as the front moves
over the inner channels. The LLWS will shift to the south/southwest
as the front moves east of the area through the early morning hours.
The showers will transition to rain as the front moves over the area
late this afternoon into tonight. This will slowly deteriorate
conditions down to consistent MVFR with some locations seeing IFR
conditions tonight. Conditions should lift by daybreak to be near
VFR conditions and much lighter winds and limited LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...Very active marine forecast with gales to 40 kt expected
across a wide area Tuesday night and small craft conditions to 30
kt across most of the rest of the area. Seas across the gulf will
also be reaching 15 ft Tuesday night. Highest winds and seas are
expected Tuesday evening and should be starting to diminish after
midnight across the gulf and after 3 am for the inner channels.
Strong W flow to 30 kt will be felt across the gulf on Wed in the
wake of this system. And that is just with the first system that
will impact the area. A second system will be moving into the area
late Wed night into Thursday with more small craft to near gale
conditions for the gulf waters. The inner channels will not be as
affected by this second system, but some S winds to 20 kt are
still possible especially in the northern inner channels Thursday.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Wednesday afternoon for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ327.
     Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight
     for AKZ328-330-332.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ329.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-035-036-641>644-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>034-053-651-652.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...EAL
LONG TERM....ABJ
AVIATION...SF

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