094
FXAK02 KWNH 222105
PMDAK

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 26 2024 - 12Z Sun Jun 30 2024

...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
A quasi-omega block sets up in and around AK early on, before a
couple deep layer cyclones interact late in the period.  Ridging
persists across eastern and portions of interior AK.  The 12z GFS
became a tad north with the initial system in the Bering Sea, but
this could be dealt with by blending in other guidance,
deterministic and ensemble mean.  Otherwise, the guidance shows
good agreement.  For the winds, pressures, 500 hPa heights, and
QPF persisted with a starting point of the 12z runs of the ECWMF,
GFS, CMC and UKMET before dropping the UKMET, while adding in the
ECWMF and GEFS ensemble means.  The remainder of the grids were
more heavily based on the 19z NBM, with some inclusion of the 12z
ECMWF and 12z ECMWF ensemble mean.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
This active pattern will keep the southwest portions of the state,
including the Aleutians, rainy.  Due to the depth of the low
expected in the Bering Sea early on, 40-45 kt (45-50 mph) winds
are expected to brush up against southwest AK next Tuesday and
Wednesday before the cyclone weakens.  The approaching system
moving in from the west should bring 0.5-1" of QPF a day which
fades with time as onshore flow weakens due to new cyclone
development in the northeast Pacific.  Thereafter, winds should
generally peak in the 30 kt (35 mph) range across the Arctic Coast
and coastal areas.  The terrain in south-central AK is expected to
have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is the
possibility of dry lightning strikes during the afternoons and
evenings may increase the risk for fire weather concerns given the
dry fuels across the region.  Ridging across the Mainland will
maintain warm to hot temperatures.  Afternoon maximums will start
in the 80-90F range across the Interior mid next week before a
slow decline thereafter.  Highs in the 60s and 70s are expected
across lower elevations of south-central AK, with 50s and 60s in
most coastal areas, roughly near 50F across the North Slope, and
mid to upper 40s in the Aleutians.    The North Slope will be cool
overnight with lows in the 30s, while higher elevations in the
terrain across south-central and southeast AK should fall below
freezing overnight.

Roth/Campbell


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$