171
FXUS61 KAKQ 131842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered off the coast today, bringing a
warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front pushes through
Friday night with a chance for a few showers and storms. Dry
with seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a hot
and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key message:

- Warming trend begins today, but still seasonable with moderate
  humidity levels.

Quiet/dry weather over the region this afternoon with high pressure
centered off the mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints are a touch higher
today compared to the past couple of days, generally in the mid to
upper 60s. Temperatures are running in the mid to upper 80s inland
and low to mid 80s closer to the coast and across the SE (where we
have seen a bit more in the way of high cloud cover this afternoon).
A weak shortwave approaches from the NW this evening, bringing a low-
end chance for an isolated pop up shower across the west/NW (not
enough to mention in the forecast). Mostly clear tonight, except for
the potential for some increasing clouds over the far SE zones on
the edge of a low offshore overnight. Seasonably warm with lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot Friday with moderate humidity levels, a chance for storms
  Friday evening/night.

- Dry weather and cooler temperatures (seasonable) return for
  Saturday into Sunday.

On Friday, an upper level ridge slowly pushes east across the
southern plains and into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a cold
front begins to push SE from the Great Lakes towards the mid
Atlantic, which should keep a coastal low system just far enough
offshore to keep the local area dry. With deep mixing and 850 mb
temperatures rising to 18-20C expect a very warm day for inland
locations with high temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. Closer
to the coast, a slight onshore component to the wind will keep
temperatures in the 80s. Dew points continue to be fairly low,
mixing into the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate the heat
index from being much warmer than the actual air temp.

A cold front drops SE across the local area Friday evening into
Friday night with at least a chance for showers/storms possible
(highest across N/NE portions of the FA). Will also have to
watch the potential for a stronger storm or two potentially
slipping into far northern and northeastern portions of the
area. SPC has a Day 2 Marginal Risk of severe weather just
touching our northern border and into far western
Louisa/Fluvanna counties. The main risk with any stronger storms
tomorrow will be damaging wind gusts. Lows will range from the
60s to near 70 (warmest SE).

Upper level trough moves offshore Saturday with the center of >
1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New
England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic later in the
weekend. Overall, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend
with dew points falling back into the 50s N to lower 60s S with
highs in the low-mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s
inland. Lows Saturday night will be near to a little below
average with high pressure over the region, ranging from the
low to mid 60s for most, with some upper 50s over rural interior
sections.

Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday or perhaps a degree
or two warmer, as the high becomes centered offshore. Highs
will range from the upper 80s inland (around 90 RIC metro) with
low to mid 80s closer to the coast (upper 70s Atlantic coast of
the eastern shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and mainly dry weather returns next week, likely
  persisting through the week.

Models continue to depict the upper level ridge building across
the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS next week. The 12Z/13 ECMWF
remains the strongest and most persistent with the ridge with
the highest H5 heights (around 600 dm with the core just N of
the local area by midweek). The 12Z/13 GFS is fairly similar,
(H5 heights ~598dm) and shows a similar placement through
midweek. The ensemble means are also in good agreement so
confidence is high at seeing an extended period of hot and
mainly dry weather. The core of the heat will be slightly to our
N through midweek which will keep some degree of low level
onshore flow intact. Highs should be into the low-mid 90s well
inland (perhaps some upper 90s Tue-Wed), but will tend to stay
in the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast). The
continental origin of the ridge may mitigate heat indices to
some extent (at least through the midweek timeframe). The
current forecast has heat indices through midweek not too far
above air temperatures, generally in the mid to upper 90s.
Overnight lows will likely creep up through the week
and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon will
continue through the 18Z TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds at 5-6 k ft
have developed over the area and will persist through the
afternoon and will diminish this evening. SSW winds average
5-10 kt inland, with E-SE winds around 10 kt or a little higher
close to the coast. Partly cloudy to mostly clear with light
southerly winds tonight.

Outlook: A cold front crosses the area Friday evening into
Friday night with a low chance for a few evening showers or
storms (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY). Winds shift around to
the N-NE Saturday morning and will likely be a bit elevated
along the coast into the aftn (gusting to around 20 kt) as high
pressure builds in from the N. After that, winds will average 10
kt or less with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies into
early next week as high pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible this afternoon
  in the lower James River and especially along the western
  shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

- A cold front drops south through the waters early Saturday
  with SCA conditions likely for the bay, lower James, and
  Currituck Sound.

1018mb high pressure has moved offshore early this morning,
resulting in southerly flow 5-10 kt over the local waters. Waves are
around 1 foot with seas 1-2 ft.

Weak synoptic flow will allow sea breeze forcing to augment
SE/onshore flow this afternoon. Winds increase to around 15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt, especially along the western shore of the Ches Bay
and potentially into the lower James River as well. Some of the hi-
res guidance shows winds increasing to around 20 kt late this
afternoon in these areas but confidence in seeing widespread winds
above SCA thresholds for more than a few hours is low so will hold
off on headlines for now. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt during the late
evening and overnight hours. The pressure gradient tightens on
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front but winds are expected to
stay in the 10-15 kt range in the pre-frontal southerly flow. Low
pressure off the Carolina coast looks to stay far enough SE to
limit local influence but any NW nudge in the track of this low
will bring the potential for increased winds/seas for the
southern coastal waters Friday afternoon. The front moves across
the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning with winds
becoming N and increasing to 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. A
period of SCA headlines will likely accompany the frontal
passage into the first half of Saturday for the Ches Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound. Confidence in seeing sustained
SCA conditions offshore is lower given the 25+kt wind
thresholds for the ocean waters. Waves in the bay will average
1-2 ft through the period with 2-3 ft possible during periods of
stronger flow this afternoon/evening and with the frontal
passage early Saturday. Seas will average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft
likely during the stronger surge early Saturday. Offshore winds
will tend to limit seas and recent guidance has backed off on
the potential for 5 ft seas on Saturday. Quiet marine conditions
return Saturday evening and are likely to persist well into
next week with strong high pressure aloft lingering over the
region.

Low rip current risk continues for all beaches today but will have
to watch the northern beaches as seas increase late this afternoon.
By Friday, a tightening pressure gradient will help to increase near-
shore wave height and longer period swells for the northern beaches
where a moderate rip risk is likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not expected Friday, but are listed below for
reference as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...MRD
CLIMATE...