469
FXUS61 KAKQ 131856
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered off the coast today, bringing a
warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front pushes through
Friday night with a chance for a few showers and storms. Dry
with seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a hot
and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key message:

- Warming trend begins today, but still seasonable with moderate
  humidity levels.

Quiet/dry weather over the region this afternoon with high pressure
centered off the mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints are a touch higher
today compared to the past couple of days, generally in the mid to
upper 60s. Temperatures are running in the mid to upper 80s inland
and low to mid 80s closer to the coast and across the SE (where we
have seen a bit more in the way of high cloud cover this afternoon).
A weak shortwave approaches from the NW this evening, bringing a low-
end chance for an isolated pop up shower across the west/NW (not
enough to mention in the forecast). Mostly clear tonight, except for
the potential for some increasing clouds over the far SE zones on
the edge of a low offshore overnight. Seasonably warm with lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot Friday with moderate humidity levels, a chance for storms
  Friday evening/night.

- Dry weather and cooler temperatures (seasonable) return for
  Saturday into Sunday.

On Friday, an upper level ridge slowly pushes east across the
southern plains and into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a cold
front begins to push SE from the Great Lakes towards the mid
Atlantic, which should keep a coastal low system just far enough
offshore to keep the local area dry. With deep mixing and 850 mb
temperatures rising to 18-20C expect a very warm day for inland
locations with high temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. Closer
to the coast, a slight onshore component to the wind will keep
temperatures in the 80s. Dew points continue to be fairly low,
mixing into the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate the heat
index from being much warmer than the actual air temp.

A cold front drops SE across the local area Friday evening into
Friday night with at least a chance for showers/storms possible
(highest across N/NE portions of the FA). Will also have to
watch the potential for a stronger storm or two potentially
slipping into far northern and northeastern portions of the
area. SPC has a Day 2 Marginal Risk of severe weather just
touching our northern border and into far western
Louisa/Fluvanna counties. The main risk with any stronger storms
tomorrow will be damaging wind gusts. Lows will range from the
60s to near 70 (warmest SE).

Upper level trough moves offshore Saturday with the center of >
1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New
England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic later in the
weekend. Overall, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend
with dew points falling back into the 50s N to lower 60s S with
highs in the low-mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s
inland. Lows Saturday night will be near to a little below
average with high pressure over the region, ranging from the
low to mid 60s for most, with some upper 50s over rural interior
sections.

Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday or perhaps a degree
or two warmer, as the high becomes centered offshore. Highs
will range from the upper 80s inland (around 90 RIC metro) with
low to mid 80s closer to the coast (upper 70s Atlantic coast of
the eastern shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and mainly dry weather returns next week, likely
  persisting through the week.

Models continue to depict the upper level ridge building across
the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS next week. The 12Z/13 ECMWF
remains the strongest and most persistent with the ridge with
the highest H5 heights (around 600 dm with the core just N of
the local area by midweek). The 12Z/13 GFS is fairly similar,
(H5 heights ~598dm) and shows a similar placement through
midweek. The ensemble means are also in good agreement so
confidence is high at seeing an extended period of hot and
mainly dry weather. The core of the heat will be slightly to our
N through midweek which will keep some degree of low level
onshore flow intact. Highs should be into the low-mid 90s well
inland (perhaps some upper 90s Tue-Wed), but will tend to stay
in the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast). The
continental origin of the ridge may mitigate heat indices to
some extent (at least through the midweek timeframe). The
current forecast has heat indices through midweek not too far
above air temperatures, generally in the mid to upper 90s.
Overnight lows will likely creep up through the week
and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon will
continue through the 18Z TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds at 5-6 k ft
have developed over the area and will persist through the
afternoon and will diminish this evening. SSW winds average
5-10 kt inland, with E-SE winds around 10 kt or a little higher
close to the coast. Partly cloudy to mostly clear with light
southerly winds tonight.

Outlook: A cold front crosses the area Friday evening into
Friday night with a low chance for a few evening showers or
storms (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY). Winds shift around to
the N-NE Saturday morning and will likely be a bit elevated
along the coast into the aftn (gusting to around 20 kt) as high
pressure builds in from the N. After that, winds will average 10
kt or less with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies into
early next week as high pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Brief period of S-SE winds of 15 to 20 kt inside the Chesapeake Bay
through this evening leading to a small craft advisory being issued.

- Southerly winds turn northerly Friday night behind a cold front.
Northerly winds are expected to gust to 20 to 25 kt late Fri night
into Saturday.

Winds inside the bay are starting to increase this afternoon with
York Spit already at 15G20kt. This is in response to the tightening
pressure gradient between the high pressure to the east and the lee
trough to the west of the waters. As such, will opt to issue a small
craft advisory for much of the bay through this evening with 15 to
20 kt winds. These southerly winds should relax later this evening
and remain around 10-15kt through Friday. A cold front currently
over the Ohio Valley will pass through the region Friday night,
allowing winds to turn northerly. There may be a weak surge behind
this front, and have continued winds gusting to 20 kt late Friday
night into Saturday as the high builds in from the northwest. This
high will shift offshore by Monday, allowing winds to become NE on
Sunday then SE-S at 15 kt for the early part of next week.

Seas generally 2 to 3 feet over the ocean and 1 to 3 ft in the bay
through the period.

We will continue with a moderate risk of rip currents for the
northern beaches on Friday, with a moderate risk of rip currents for
all of the beaches on Saturday. Surf height during these periods of
moderate rip current risk will reach 3 feet.




&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not expected Friday, but are listed below for
reference as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...MRD
CLIMATE...