781
FXUS61 KAKQ 181015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
615 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently off the New England coast slowly shifts
south through the end of the week. A very warm and dry pattern
will continue this week, with very hot weather expected this
weekend with widespread mid to upper 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Warm and dry today followed by a pleasant night tonight with
temperatures falling into the 60s.

Early morning wx analysis shows 1026mb high pressure centered just
offshore of the New England coast, with strong ridging aloft over
the ern CONUS, and a ~595dm upper high over VA/NC. Skies are mostly
clear with temps in the upper 60s-lower 70s. Today will be very
similar to yesterday with the sfc high remaining anchored offshore
while the anticyclone aloft strengthens to ~597dm over the Mid-
Atlantic. The low-level flow becomes SE during the aftn, with the
warmest temps (lower 90s) expected along and west of I-95. Highs
will reach the mid-upper 80s near the coast with the flow becoming
onshore. It will be a few degrees cooler tonight with the flow
becoming light but remaining SE. Lows will fall into the lower-mid
60s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Continued warm and dry through the end of the week.

- Highs will only be a few degrees above average at most (mid 80s-
lower 90s) on Wednesday and Thursday.

- A more pronounced warming trend begins on Friday with highs in the
low to mid 90s expected. Heat indices will only be a couple degrees
higher than the actual temperatures as dew points remain in the 60s
through the end of the week.

The surface high remains centered offshore through the end of the
week but slowly shifts southward (likely becoming centered off the
VA/NC coast on Fri). The ~598dm upper high remains anchored over the
Mid-Atlantic on Wed and Thu and will also gradually shift south
through the end of the week. Low-level onshore (mainly SE) flow
continues on Wed and Thu, with the flow becoming southerly on Friday
as the sfc high shifts south. Highs Wed will be in the mid 80s near
the coast (locally lower 80s from OXB-WAL) with upper 80s-90F
readings inland. Thu will be a couple degrees warmer than Wed with
highs in the mid-upper 80s near the coast with lower 90s inland.
With the flow becoming south on Friday, highs will rise into the mid
90s inland with upper 80s-lower 90s near the coast. Dew points will
remain in the 60s through the period which will keep heat index
values from being much higher than actual air temps. Dry wx
continues with no precipitation chances through Friday with partly
to mostly sunny skies expected each day (mainly due to typical
afternoon cumulus). Lows Wed night still in the low-mid 60s, with
mid-upper 60s Thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and slightly more humid conditions expected Saturday and
Sunday.

- High temperatures will make a run at 100F over the weekend, with
heat indices potentially exceeding advisory criteria across parts of
the area.

- Scattered thunderstorms may finally return by Monday
afternoon/evening.

Looking ahead, the main weather story this weekend remains the
persistent and increasingly oppressive heat. Sfc high pressure
slides into a more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern in the
western Atlantic while the ridge aloft becomes suppressed to our
south. This allows the low-level flow to become SSW which will bring
very hot and slightly more humid air to the region. Equally as
important, relief at night will become increasingly harder to come
by, with overnight lows only falling to around 70F Friday night, and
into the low-mid 70s Sat and Sun nights. Dry wx prevails through the
weekend outside of isolated aftn/evening tstms on Sun. High temps
will make a run at 100F on both days in areas west of the bay. Heat
headlines will very likely be needed over at least a portion of the
area on both Sat and Sun.

Hot weather continues on Monday with heat headlines possible
(especially S/SE) but a shortwave tracking to our north along with
an approaching cold front will bring a better chance for tstms by
the aftn/evening (PoPs ~40%).

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 615 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the next 24 hrs.
Skies will remain mostly clear at the terminals this morning
(outside of SCT mid-level AC through 13-14z) with FEW-SCT CU
(~6000ft AGL) inland during the aftn. The wind will be light out
of the SSE tonight, and then become SE ~10kt later this morning
into the aftn.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday
as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA winds expected through this week, though a few gusts to
around 20 kt are possible in the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon.

- Moderate rip current risk at Ocean City and Assateague beaches
today.

Winds are S-SSE ~10 kt across most of the marine area this morning
with high pressure centered offshore. In our northern two Chesapeake
Bay zones, continue to see a few gusts to around 20 kt. With most
obs now below small craft advisory criteria, have elected to cancel
all headlines with the morning forecast package. Seas are 2-3 ft and
waves 1-2 ft. The gustiest winds of this week are forecast this
afternoon where a few 20+ kt gusts are possible in the Chesapeake
Bay in the 18z-00z/2 PM-8 PM timeframe. However, most guidance keeps
sustained winds below 18 kt and wind probabilities reflect this.
Therefore, no headlines will be raised at this time for today. A
repetitive, summer pattern is expected for most of this week with
afternoon/evening enhancements in ESE/SE flow, though expecting
winds to stay largely sub-SCA. The flow becomes southerly for the
weekend as the offshore high drifts south. The only day where
widespread SCA-level winds look possible is Sunday as low pressure
passing to our N tightens the pressure gradient. Winds would remain
southerly.

Seas of 2-3 ft are expected through most of the forecast period. May
see readings approach 4 ft Thursday and Friday with increased
southeasterly swell energy. Waves stay largely 1-2 ft, though 2-3 ft
waves are possible this afternoon and evening in the lower bay.

The rip current risk is moderate across northern beaches and low
across southern beaches today. A moderate risk is forecast at all
beaches Wednesday. Swell energy and wave periods increase some for
Thursday and Friday, suggesting a continuation of at least moderate
rip risks.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW