436
FXUS61 KAKQ 020047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
847 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues through tonight as high pressure
gradually pushes offshore. A weak low pressure system will bring the
chance for a few showers and storms late Sunday into Monday. Warm
and unsettled weather returns from mid to late week with scattered
showers and storms possible through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Pleasant weather continues to prevail overnight.

Sfc high pressure has become centered along or just off the NC
coast this evening, with an upper level ridge axis in place
across the east coast. Winds are light from the S or variable
with high clouds streaming through the region. Temperatures have
dropped off into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the region,
with dew pts recovering mostly into the 50s. The high will
continue moving farther offshore overnight, with the ridge aloft
pushing offshore by around sunrise Sunday morning. The sky will
average out partly cloudy overnight, trending towards mostly
cloudy by sunrise. Low temperatures will mostly range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s, with some mid 50s in the typically
coolest rural interior locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- There is a chance for a few showers late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night with a slightly higher chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Monday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible west of the
Chesapeake Bay Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A dampening shortwave and very weak sfc low will track just to our
north (from W to E) on Sunday. The low-level flow increases a bit
out of the SSW, which will allow dew points to recover to ~60F by
late aftn, although the best moisture return will still be to our S
and W. Nevertheless, isolated showers or sprinkles are possible
across the Piedmont by mid-late morning with low PoPs for
showers in the NW half of the FA by the aftn/evening. The
highest shower chances shift to the eastern third of the FA by
Sun night. Given that both sfc- based and elevated instability
will be very limited or nonexistent, am not expecting much of
any thunder through Sun night. Highs Sun in the upper 70s-lower
80s, with lows in the 60s Sun night with dew points rising to
the 60-65F range by sunrise on Mon. Another subtle shortwave
moves towards the area Mon with weak NW flow aloft. It will be a
bit warmer on Mon with highs in the low- mid 80s with dew
points rising into the mid- upper 60s. This should allow for
enough instability for tstms, and am expecting isolated to
scattered storms area-wide by the aftn/evening as the
environment will be uncapped with that shortwave moving through.
While severe wx is not expected, a few storms on Mon could
produce ~45 mph wind gusts which could result in very localized
tree damage. Tstms diminish Mon night w/ the loss of daytime
heating. Lows Mon night will be in the 60s. A backdoor cold
front approaches the area Mon night and crosses part of the area
on Tue. There won`t be much of a forcing mechanism for
convection along/ahead of the front, but will maintain slight
chc PoPs for isolated aftn/evening showers/tstms (mainly
inland). Forecast highs Tue are in the mid 70s-lower 80s near
the immediate Atlantic coast, with mid 80s in most areas west of
the bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather persists from mid to late week with multiple
chances for showers and storms.

- Mild with highs in the low-mid 80s each day.

Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek
before a trough moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New
England from mid to late week, potentially becoming a cutoff low
near or just north of the Great Lakes. As this pattern change
occurs, models show the potential for multiple shortwaves moving
through the area...which will give us daily chances for isolated-
scattered showers/tstms. While it is very hard to time individual
shortwaves this far in advance, it appears that the greatest chance
for storms all week will be on Wed and/or Thu as the combination of
the upper level trough approaching and a cold front moving through
(likely on Thu) should provide for enough forcing for at least
somewhat organized convection. A potential overlap of shear and
instability may allow for some stronger storms as well. However, as
alluded to above, uncertainty is still high this far out regarding
timing of the necessary ingredients for any mention of severe wx,
but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, warm/humid wx persists all
week with highs mainly in the mid 80s each day (upper 70s to lower
80s across the Eastern Shore) and lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions will continue through the 00z/02 TAF period.
Winds remain light/variable through much of tonight, gradually
becoming more from the SSW overnight as high pressure slides
farther offshore. High clouds thicken overnight as a weak
system approaches from the west. Winds become SSW at around 10
kt on Sunday. Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through most of Sun, with a low chance for showers (which aren`t
expected to cause flight restrictions) late Sun into Sun night
(highest PoPs are at RIC Sun aftn/evening and shift toward SBY
Sun night).

Mainly dry and VFR Mon and Tue outside of a few isolated
showers/tstms in the afternoon/evening (highest PoPs are on
Mon). Unsettled weather returns on Wed/Thu with a better chc for
more organized showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

-High pressure shifts offshore today. Outside of any thunderstorms
Monday and later next week, generally quiet marine conditions are
favored.

High pressure is gradually shifting offshore this afternoon. Winds
are light and variable as of 230 PM, but are expected to shift to
the south areawide over the next few hours into this evening and
then to the SSW late tonight. This is in response to the high
shifting further offshore. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a 4-
8 hr period (from about 3-11z/11 PM-7 AM) of south winds approaching
18 kt sustained in the Chesapeake Bay (with gusts 20-25 kt). At
this time, will continue to hold off on SCA headlines and keep the
official wind forecast just below 18 kt due to the marginal and
brief nature of the surge. An MWS or short-fused SCA may still be
required and will monitor through this aftn. Winds become due south
again for Sunday and should remain sub-SCA. Wind speeds of 10-15 kt
are expected in the bay/rivers/sound and 15-20 kt on the coastal
waters. A slow-moving cold front will drop S through the waters
Monday into Monday night. Winds will remain on the light side and be
from the SSW south of the front and E/ENE north of the front. With
the nearby front, scattered showers and storm could develop over or
near the marine area Monday aftn, with locally higher winds and
waves. With the front south of the area Tuesday, E winds ~10 kt are
expected. A warm front lifts N Wednesday and the flow again turns
southerly. This will favor an unsettled pattern with afternoon
shower and storm chances Wed and Thu. Outside of storms, winds stay
mainly sub-SCA.

Seas are 1-2 ft and waves 1 ft or less this aftn. Waves in the bay
become ~2 ft (locally 3 ft in the nrn bay) tonight w/ the elevated S
winds. Otherwise, waves/seas of 1-3 ft are expected through
Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...SW