773
FXUS61 KAKQ 302014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
414 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain are expected into
tonight as a cold front moves in from the northwest. The front
pushes south of the area Monday morning, bringing cooler
temperatures and lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat and
humidity return later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Severe Tstm Watch has been issued for the entire CWA through
  11 pm tonight, primarily a wind threat. A Heat Advisory
  remains in effect for portions of the area through 6pm.

- PoPs diminish from NW to SE overnight, lingering heavy rain
  possible in the SE through ~4am, then much cooler and more
  comfortable Monday.


The latest WX analysis indicates a broad positively tilted mid/upper
level trough extending from northern Quebec SW to the eastern
Great Lakes region. At the sfc, low pressure is moving through
Quebec towards Atlantic Canada, with a trailing cold front
extending SW to the west slope of the Appalachians. A lee trough
is in place over the western portion of the CWA. Severe Tstm
Watch has been issued for the entire CWA through 11 pm EDT
tonight, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. There is
a subtle shortwave aloft passing through the local area this
aftn and mid level (500-700mb lapse rates are increasing
modestly to near 6CM/Km). Therefore, we could see isolated hail with
the strongest cores. ML CAPE (to ~3000 J/Kg) and PWATs (2.30" to 2.50")
are highest across the SE 1/2 of the CWA and this is where
storms have been more organized so far this aftn. The CAMs
suggest this activity continues into the early evening, with a
bit of a lull followed by PoPs ramping back up from NW as we
approach sunset. Outside of storms, hot and very humid
conditions prevail with heat indices widespread in the 105-100F
range and locally higher. With the fairly widespread convection
over the next 1-3 hrs, the heat impacts will diminish and we
should be able to cancel the Heat Advisory at the 6pm end time.
Tonight, there will still be a severe threat initially as some
areas of central VA/metro RIC have received no rain thus far
and will still have decent low level lapse rates and
instability. After the initial line or broken line of storms,
the severe threat will diminish and transition to more of a
heavy rain threat overnight, especially over the E/SE. QPF
amounts will vary widely given the convection nature, but the
12Z HREF means again favor SE VA/NE NC for the highest rain
totals with ~30% chances for 3"/3hr. Winds shift abruptly to the
N/NE in the wake of the front between around midnight and 6 am
from NW to SE. Winds become gusty to 20-30 mph as much cooler
and drier air filters in. Lows will range from the upper 50s NW
to the lwr 70s far SE.

Some lingering clouds and showers in the far SE Monday morning,
but elsewhere the sky will become mostly sunny. With dew pts
falling into the 50s most areas and highs holding in the upper
70s (SE coast) to around 80F/lower 80s elsewhere, peak heat
indices Monday will be an astounding 30 to 35 degrees lower
than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Clear or mostly clear and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high
pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the mid
50s to around 60F along and W of I-95 and 60-65F to the east.
The center of the sfc high will move to the srn New England
coast Tue. Generally mostly sunny with SCT aftn cu and still
rather comfortable with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at
the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in
the 50s to lower 60s. The sfc high will sit just off the New
England coast Tue night. Clear to partly cloudy and still
rather comfortable with lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.
The models show good consensus for the return of the upper
ridge over the southeast CONUS by midweek, with Wed being the
transition day. With sfc high pressure still centered just off
the coast Wed, conditions will be warmer but still near average
for early July, with highs in the mid 80s to around 90, with
humidity levels still not too bad, along with no chc for rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 405 PM EDT Sunday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity return.

After a nice break from the heat, there is strong model
consensus for a return to hot and humid weather starting
Thursday/Independence Day. An upper level ridge will be in place
over the SE CONUS, slowly shifting off the east coast into next
weekend. Highs look to range from the mid to upper 90s well
inland and in the 90-95F range closer to the coast Thu-Sat,
perhaps trending slightly cooler by Sunday as the next cold
front pushes in from the W. With dewpoints climbing back into
the 70-75F range, heat indices will likely be at least 100-105F.
As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/scattered mainly
aftn/evening tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions were prevailing at the TAF sites as of midday
with SSW winds 5-10 kt. Sctd to numerous showers/tstms are
likely this aftn through late this evening, with showers and a
few tstms likely tonight into early Mon morning. Some of the
storms could be strong to severe (esply during this
aftn/evening), with brief wind gusts of 30-50 kt possible. Any
tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR- LIFR flight
restrictions in heavy rain. Winds shift to the NNE Mon morning
and will be gusty, esply at the coast. High pressure and drier
conditions return for later Mon morning/early Mon aftn through
Tue, and mainly dry Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches through
  Monday.

- A period of SCA conditions is expected for the bay, lower
  James and Currituck sound late tonight into Monday with
  northerly winds behind a cold front. SCAs have also been added
  to the southern coastal waters for late tonight into early
  Monday.

- High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period,
  with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek.

Latest sfc analysis indicates a cold front to the NW of local
waters, and its associated low pressure just to the NW of Maine.
Ahead of the front, some scattered thunderstorms have formed,
which may lead to brief gusts in excess of 40kt, heavy rain, and
frequent lightning. Additional storms are expected later
tonight as the front passes through the region. Latest wind obs
show a S/SW wind of 10-15kt with a few gusts approaching 20kt.
Seas are a bit slower to come up than forecast with buoy obs
showing 2-3ft. Waves are 1-2ft this afternoon.

The previously referenced cold front, a strong cold front relative
to late June/July, crosses into the area after midnight late
tonight/early Monday, with a decent CAA surge post-frontal. NNW
winds of 15-25kt expected. Seas build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves
in the Ches. Bay. SCAs have been hoisted for the Ches. Bay,
lower James, and Currituck Sound. Went ahead and raised SCAs for
coastal waters S of Cape Charles due to a window for 25-30kt
gusts in the few hours on either side of sunrise Monday. Winds
remain N ~15-20 kt into Monday aftn, before diminishing to NE
10-15kt Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE
toward the New England coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be
possible in the lower bay and lower James Monday night before
gradually diminishing. Seas slowly subside to ~3ft by late
Monday night, as high pressure builds into the region. The high
eventually settles S off the coastal Carolinas by midweek with
the wind becoming southerly.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all
beaches for the rest of today and Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>069-
     079>090-092-093-095>098-512>520-522>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ632>634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...LKB/TMG
MARINE...AM/MAM