370
FXUS61 KAKQ 301901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will track across the region late this
afternoon and into tonight, bringing an increase in clouds and a
few passing showers over south central VA and northeast NC.
Otherwise, pleasant and less humid conditions are expected today
through Saturday. A weak trough will bring an increase in
clouds and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- A few showers will be possible late this afternoon and this
  evening over south central and southeastern VA into NE NC.
  Rainfall amounts will be quite light and areal coverage of
  showers are expected to be quite low.

GOES water vapor channels depict a potent upper trough dropping
SE across western PA this afternoon. Scattered CU have
developed inland this afternoon in advance of the upper trough.
Very pleasant with temperatures in the mid 70s, dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s, and a N wind of 10-15 mph. The upper
trough will sweep across the area late this afternoon through
the early overnight hours followed by a secondary cold front.
12z/30 CAMs continue to depict some very isolated showers from
s-central/SE VA into NE NC pushing SE late this afternoon
through the early overnight hours, with the HRRR consistently
showing a little more coverage over SE VA. High pressure over
the Great Lakes will build in from the NW later tonight. The sky
clears from NW-SE with overnight/early Friday morning lows
ranging from the mid/upper 40s NW to the upper 50s/around 60F
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Continued pleasant with temperatures still cooler than normal
  for Friday. Comfortably cool Friday night with lows in the
  40s inland to low 50s at the coast.

- Warming temperatures but remaining dry for Saturday.

- A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Sunday.

Surface high pressure builds across the region Friday into
Saturday as the upper trough shifts offshore and an upper ridge
builds across the Ohio Valley. Very pleasant and sunny Friday
with highs in the mid 70s and dewpoints dropping into the upper
30s to mid 40s. Comfortably cool Friday night/early Saturday
morning with lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s W to the lower
to mid 50s along the coast. The airmass modifies Saturday with
highs warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Still sunny and
pleasant with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Surface high pressure remains over the area Saturday night,
before shifting offshore Sunday. Low temperatures will mainly be
in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday morning, followed by highs
of 80-85F Sunday. The upper ridge builds across the region, but
does break down slightly later Sunday as a shortwave trough
tracks across the top of the ridge. A warm front will also lift
into the region as the high moves offshore. PW values increase
but still remain near normal. PoPs for showers/tstms have been
maintained at 20% or less at this time. However, some of the
12z/30 guidance does suggest higher rain chances across the
north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming trend continues from Monday through the
  middle of next week.

- Low rain chances continue with typical late day and evening
  showers and thunderstorms possible both Monday and Tuesday,
  with an increased chance Wednesday and Thursday.

A slight chc of showers/tstms lingers across northern portions
of the area Sunday night. Otherwise, mild with lows in the 60s
late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Ensemble guidance
depicts zonal flow early next week with mainly dry conditions
outside of a limited chc of afternoon/evening showers/tstms. A
warming trend commences with high temperatures in the lower to
mid 80s toward the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland. EPS/GEFS
depict weak troughing developing across the Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday/Thursday with an increase in PW anomalies. Therefore,
there is an increased chc of afternoon/evening showers/tstms by
Wednesday and Thursday. More humid with highs remaining in the
lower to mid 80s toward the coast and the mid to upper 80s
inland. Lows will mainly be in the 60s during the early to
middle portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes as of 18z, with
an upper trough and secondary cold front dropping SE across
PA/WV. VFR with FEW-SCT CU along the coast and SCT-BKN CU inland
with bases of 5-7kft. The wind is mainly N to NW 10-15kt with
occasional gusts up to 20kt. The upper trough and cold front
will approach from the NW late this aftn and evening, and push
through the area overnight. This is expected to bring a period
of BKN cigs ~6kft, especially from central/SE VA into NE NC
(less cloud cover at SBY) along with very isolated showers. ORF
and PHF have the best chc (albeit limited) of showers this
evening through around 06z so VCSH has been added to those sites.
Any showers should have little impact on cig/vsby. Otherwise,
clouds clear from NW-SE overnight into early Friday morning. The
wind later this aftn into tonight will be light and generally
out of the NW to N. Sunny and VFR Friday with a northerly wind
of 10-15kt with occasional gusts approaching 20kt through
midday, and then diminishing during the aftn as high pressure
builds in from the NW.

High pressure spreads across the region Friday night through
Saturday, before sliding offshore Sunday through Tuesday.
Primarily dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
Thursday night through Tuesday. The only exception is a slight
chc of showers/tstms Sunday as a weakening system tracks N of
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- All Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued.

- Another brief N surge of 15 to 20 knots is possible Friday
  morning as high pressure builds in from the NW.

Sfc high pressure is centered across the western Great Lakes
this aftn, with sfc low pressure off the southern New England
coast. N to NW winds are averaging 10-15 kt this aftn over the
local waters, with seas 2-3 ft (except locally 3-4 ft off NC).
Waves are 1-2 ft in the Bay. Winds will tend to drop off a bit
this evening.

As high pressure starts to builds in from the NW overnight into
Fri, N winds again increase to ~15 kt+ with gusts to 20 kt+
with the highest winds expected from about 4 am through ~10 am.
Local wind probs have a 20-40% chc for 18 kt sustained winds in
the Bay (which is less than what occurred earlier today when
the probs were >60%). Expect that there will be a short duration
of gusts to 20-25 kt but confidence in this lasting long enough
to warrant headlines is low. Decided to not issue any SCA
headlines for now and will allow next shift to assess (at the
very least we will probably need to issue an MWS for a short
duration surge Friday morning). Either way, this should be a
low- end SCA event if it does occur, with sub- SCA conditions
returning Fri aftn and beyond. Winds will generally be light
Saturday as the sfc high settles over the region, with a
southerly flow developing Sat night/Sunday as the sfc high
shifts off the coast. Sub-SCA conditions continue through the
middle of next week, with seas 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft or less.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

NNE winds have led to 3-4 ft waves along NC Beaches and with
low tide expected early this evening have raised Moderate rip
risk for NC OBX Currituck through 8 pm this evening (low rip
risk elsewhere). It will be close again Friday (southern VA/NE
NC beaches) as another northerly surge could bring waves ~3ft
nearshore, but for now stayed with Low rips all zones Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ