Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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421 FXUS61 KAKQ 190139 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 939 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure located over the Carolinas will weaken this evening, and will move offshore tomorrow into Friday. A backdoor cold front potentially drops back south across the region Friday night through Saturday. High pressure builds north of the area this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 940 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Showers have decreased in coverage and intensity this evening with otherwise warm and humid conditions expected tonight. High pressure remains centered over New England this evening but has weakened. Meanwhile, a stationary front lingers over northern NC. Aloft, a broad trough is over the eastern US, with an upper low centered over western VA. Showers have decreased in coverage and intensity this evening, but earlier showers/tstms did produce locally heavy rain and flooding over s-central VA. Warm and humid this evening with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Mostly cloudy to overcast across most of the area. Remaining mostly cloudy to overcast with saturated low-levels along and N of the front, with areas of fog developing late tonight over central and southern portions of the area. Lows tonight drop back into the lower 60s NW to upper 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Decreasing rain chances Thursday and Friday. As the coastal low lifts further to the NE on Thursday, expect a drier day for most of the area compared to the previous few. Expect some partial clearing (especially inland) late in the day. Still, isolated to scattered afternoon showers or storms are likely across southern Virginia into northeast North Carolina (40-50% PoPs) as the weakening upper low pushes across the Carolinas, with the closed low weakening and opening up by Thu aftn. High temperatures on Thursday will generally be in the upper 70s area-wide and low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunshine returns in earnest for Friday with temperatures warming into the upper 70s along the coast to low 80s inland. A backdoor cold front pushes south into the area Friday night, bringing a slight chance for a late day/evening shower over the MD eastern shore. Low temperatures Friday night range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Drier and cooler weather arrives this weekend into early next week. Mainly cooler and drier into early next week. The upper trough exits well offshore Monday into Tuesday. On its heels, broad upper level ridging builds across the east coast into Atlantic Canada and Greenland. At the surface, low pressure lingers off the Mid-Atlantic coast through the weekend, gradually shifting south Sunday into early next week. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered in Quebec through Saturday before dropping south into New England by Monday. This looks to result in a cooler period over the weekend into early next week, with highs only in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s away from the coast. Given the low offshore, coastal areas can expect breezy conditions with gusts to 25-30 mph over the weekend into Monday, along with greater cloud cover and humidity. Should remain mainly dry, but we cannot rule out a few isolated showers along the coast (20% PoPs) each afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 940 PM EDT Wednesday... Weak high pressure remains centered over New England as of 00z, with a weak stationary front over northern NC. IFR/MVFR cigs prevail N of the boundary at all TAF sites with spotty light rain and drizzle. IFR/LIFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight into Thursday morning. Vsby potentially drops to 3-5sm after 06z and into early Thursday morning. The wind is mainly NE 5-10kt and will become very light out of the N to NNE overnight. Gradually improving conditions are expected Thursday with cigs lifting to MVFR late morning into early aftn, and then VFR by mid-late aftn. The wind will mainly be NE 5-10kt. High pressure builds in from the N Thursday night with some clearing. This could result in some fog late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Otherwise, gradually improving and primarily VFR conditions are expected Friday through the weekend and into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories continue for coastal waters off the Delmarva into Thursday. - Another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions appears increasingly likely this weekend into early next week. An elongated area of low pressure has developed from Northeast North Carolina to off the Virginia Capes this afternoon as the upper level trough over South Carolina slowly begins to lift northeastward. Gradually, this area of low pressure will become more defined well off the Delmarva and NJ coast on Thursday. In the interim, expect conditions to remain rather unchanged with N to NE flow in the 10 to 15 kt range on the Ches Bay and Northern Coastal waters and 5 to 10 kt across the adjacent NC waters. Seas remain elevated from the long time of NE flow earlier in the week, but are coming down with seas from the Mouth of the Bay southward in the coastal waters are in the 3 - 4 ft range. Farther north they are slower to drop and are still in the 4 -7 ft range. So have maintained the SCA for this area and actually extended the SCA through mid day for the northern 2 coast zones. By Thursday afternoon, the area of low pressure should be coming more organized, but will also be relatively stationary a couple hundred miles off the NJ coast. This will allow for NNW winds to persist for several days through Saturday. Generally winds should remain mostly 10 - 15 kt through the period with maybe a slight increase across the northern coastal waters for Friday night. But overall, think most areas will stay below SCA levels through Saturday. By Saturday night, the coastal low finally begins to move and actually drops SE heading toward Bermuda. But is it leaves, it will begin to strength and the winds across the waters will increase out of the NE with building seas once again. SCA conditions look likely across the area waters from Sunday through early next week as the seas jump up into the 5 - 8 ft range into Tuesday before conditions relax with high pressure building over the area waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 435 PM EDT Wednesday... Astronomical tides will continue to increase with the approach of the next full moon. Higher astro tides along with prolonged onshore flow will continue to produce nuisance to low-end minor tidal flooding across much of the area along the bay and tidal rivers through the end of the week. Have issued another round of Coastal Flood Advisories through the next high tide cycle tonight through early tomorrow morning for most of the bay and adjacent tributaries along with the coastal locations across the VA portion of the Delmarva. Additional advisories/extension of Advisories will likely be needed through the end of the week and into the weekend due to extended periods of onshore flow and high astro tides. Low end moderate flooding is possible at particularly vulnerable spots (Bishop`s Head, Oyster), but otherwise staying within minor flood thresholds so far. However, a building flood tide Saturday into Saturday night does bring the potential for tide levels reaching moderate Coastal Flood Thresholds (best chances northern coastal zones and lower bay) for tide cycles over the upcoming weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ078-085. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ084-086- 095>098-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...ESS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ