057
FXUS61 KAKQ 141826
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
226 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region tonight with a few
showers and storms possible. Dry with seasonable temperatures
over the weekend, followed by a very warm to hot and mainly dry
pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers and storms will be possible this evening and
  tonight.

A cold front will gradually approach late this afternoon and
then crosses the area this evening into the overnight hours.
CAMS show scattered showers and storms developing ahead of and
with the front as it passes with the greatest coverage expected
to be N-NE of Richmond over to the Eastern Shore. Cannot rule
out an isolated strong to severe storm later this evening and
tonight from Caroline County and the Northern Neck across to the
lower MD Eastern Shore where SPC has us highlighted for a MRGL
risk of severe. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat. Any lingering showers/storms near the coast
should move offshore after midnight. Overnight low temps range
from the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and lower temperatures (seasonable) return for
  Saturday into Sunday.

Cooler on Saturday with pleasant/tolerable humidity values
behind the front. Highs rise into the mid to upper 80s but dew
points mix out into the 50s to low 60s during the afternoon.
A mostly sunny sky will prevail with northerly winds continuing
through the afternoon. Could be a bit breezy, especially near
the coast in the morning. Continued dry and pleasant Saturday
night with lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Surface high pressure to the north will move offshore on Sunday as
an upper ridge builds NE. High temps will be a degree or two above
what we will see on Saturday with highs in the upper 80s inland with
low to mid 80s near the coast. Dew points remain comfortable in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Low temps Sunday night in the low/mid 60s
inland with upper 60s likely for coastal locations.

For Monday, a 595dm upper ridge centers itself over the mid-
Atlantic region while sfc high pressure offshore brings SW flow
to the area. This will allow for temperatures to rise above
normal with continued dry conditions. Highs will be in low 90s
inland with 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry weather returns next week, likely persisting through
  the end of the forecast period.

Models continue to depict an upper level ridge building across
the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS next week. Global models have come
into decent agreement showing the center of the upper ridge
orienting just N and NW of the local area by the middle of next
week. The ECMWF continues to be the most bullish with upper
heights but the GFS/GEM and their ensembles generally agree that
a period of hot temperatures will occur across the area next
week. With the core of the upper ridge displaced to the N, will
maintain some degree of onshore flow across the area. Highs
should be into the low-mid 90s well inland, but will tend to
stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. The
continental origin of the ridge will likely mitigate heat
indices. The current forecast has heat indices through midweek
right around the actual air temperatures, generally in the low
to mid 90s. An inverted upper trough moves westward underneath
the upper ridge late week which could trigger a few storms over
our southern CWA. Overnight lows slowly creep up through the
week and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

A weak front will be advancing southward across the area during
the late evening and overnight period. This front will likely
touch off isolated to widely scattered showers and storms,
especially from just north of KRIC over to KSBY between 00-06z
Sat. Included VCSH at SBY where confidence is highest. MVFR
CIGs are also forecast at KSBY from 06z-12z Sat, with VFR
prevailing elsewhere outside of isolated shower/storm
influences. Winds will be light from the S-SE through this
evening before the frontal passage causes winds to shift around
out of the N early Sat morning.

Winds will average 10 kt or less with VFR conditions and mostly
clear skies Sunday into early next week as high pressure
gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds turn northerly early Saturday morning behind a cold
  front. Northerly winds are expected to gust to around 20 kt
  for a few hours Saturday morning.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected through the remainder of the
  weekend into early next week.

Southerly winds have diminished to 10-15 kt and will remain in that
range today as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and low
pressure tracks well offshore. Could see the S-SE winds occasionally
gust to 20 kt for a few hours this aftn/evening on the bay. The
aforementioned cold front is progged to cross the waters early
Saturday morning, allowing winds to turn northerly. There will be a
weak surge behind this front (peak winds are expected to occur
between 6-11 AM with gusts to 20 kt likely for a few hours), but not
confident enough in frequent 20-25 kt gusts on the bay to issue a
3rd period SCA given the marginal nature/short duration of the
potential event. Local wind probabilities of sustained 18 kt winds
are 25-40% on the bay for a 2-4 hour period Saturday morning. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected Sat aftn-Sun with NE to E winds around
10 kt as high pressure builds toward the waters. The high will shift
offshore by Monday, allowing winds to become S-SE at ~15 kt for the
early part of next week.

Seas generally 2-3 ft over the ocean with 1-3 ft waves on the bay
through the period, although seas will briefly build to 4 ft by mid
to late Saturday morning behind the cold front.

Will continue with a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern
beaches today, with a moderate risk of rip currents for all of the
beaches on Saturday. Surf height during these periods of moderate
rip current risk will reach 3 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not expected Friday, but are listed below for
reference as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/RHR
LONG TERM...JDM/RHR
AVIATION...JDM/RHR
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...AKQ