317
FXUS61 KAKQ 141052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered off the coast today, bringing a
warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front pushes
through tonight with a chance for a few showers and storms. Dry
with seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a
hot and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warm today with moderate humidity levels, a chance for storms
  this evening and tonight.

Surface analysis shows developing low pressure off the SC coast with
another area of low pressure over eastern Canada. A front extends SW
from this low into the Midwest states. Satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies across the area.

Upper ridge builds NE from the southern Plains toward the local area
as the aforementioned cold front translates SE. Expect mostly sunny
skies today with high temperatures in the low 90s inland with
onshore flow keeping temps in the mid and upper 80s near the coast.
Dew points continue to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s,
which will serve to keep the heat index from being much warmer than
the actual air temp. Guidance is now in agreement that the coastal
low pressure will remain safely south and east of the local area.
The cold front approaches late this afternoon and crosses the area
this evening into the overnight hours. Hi-res guidance has trended
toward less coverage of showers and storms with this feature but
will maintain PoPs in the 20-50% range (highest N and NE) this
evening. Any lingering showers/storms near the coast should move
offshore after midnight. Overnight low temps range from the mid 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and cooler temperatures (seasonable) return for
  Saturday into Sunday.

Cooler on Saturday with pleasant humidity values behind the front.
Highs rise into the mid to upper 80s but dew points mix out into the
50s to low 60s during the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will prevail
with northerly winds continuing through the afternoon. Could be a
bit breezy, especially near the coast. Continued dry and pleasant
Saturday night with lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Surface high pressure to the north will move offshore on Sunday as
an upper ridge builds NE. High temps will be a degree or two above
what we will see on Saturday with highs in the upper 80s inland with
low to mid 80s near the coast. Dew points remain comfortable in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Low temps Sunday night in the low/mid 60s
inland with upper 60s likely for coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry weather returns next week, likely persisting through
  the end of the forecast period.

Models continue to depict the upper level ridge building across the
eastern 1/3 of the CONUS next week. Global models have come into
decent agreement showing the center of the upper ridge orienting
just N and NW of the local area. The ECMWF continues to be the most
bullish with upper heights but the GFS/GEM and their ensembles
generally agree that a period of hot temperatures will occur across
the area next week. With the core of the upper ridge displaced to
the N, will maintain some degree of onshore flow across the area.
Highs should be into the low-mid 90s well inland, but will tend to
stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. The
continental origin of the ridge will likely mitigate heat
indices. The current forecast has heat indices through midweek
right around the actual air temperatures, generally in the low
to mid 90s. An inverted upper trough moves eastward to the south
of the upper ridge mid to late week which may allow a few
showers and storms to form over the southern CWA. Overnight lows
slowly creep up through the week and range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Friday...

VFR prevails today ahead of a cold frontal passage tonight.
Satellite and surface observations show mostly clear skies
across the region with some SCT/BKN CIGs around 5kft noted NW of
SBY. Winds are generally from the S at 5-10 kt, becoming SW
inland and SE along the coast by mid morning. A weak front drops
southward late in the period with recent guidance showing only
weakening showers/storms affecting the northern terminals.
Included VCSH at SBY where confidence is highest. MVFR CIGs are
forecast late tonight at SBY with VFR prevailing elsewhere
outside of isolated shower/storm influences.

Outlook: Winds shift around to the N-NE Saturday morning and
will likely be a bit elevated along the coast into the aftn
(gusting to around 20 kt) as high pressure builds in from the N.
After that, winds will average 10 kt or less with VFR
conditions and mostly clear skies into early next week as high
pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds turn northerly early Saturday morning behind a cold
  front. Northerly winds are expected to gust to around 20 kt
  for a few hours Saturday morning.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected through the remainder of the
  weekend into early next week.

Southerly winds have diminished to 10-15 kt and will remain in that
range today as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and low
pressure tracks well offshore. Could see the S-SE winds occasionally
gust to 20 kt for a few hours this aftn/evening on the bay. The
aforementioned cold front is progged to cross the waters early
Saturday morning, allowing winds to turn northerly. There will be a
weak surge behind this front (peak winds are expected to occur
between 6-11 AM with gusts to 20 kt likely for a few hours), but not
confident enough in frequent 20-25 kt gusts on the bay to issue a
3rd period SCA given the marginal nature/short duration of the
potential event. Local wind probabilities of sustained 18 kt winds
are 25-40% on the bay for a 2-4 hour period Saturday morning. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected Sat aftn-Sun with NE to E winds around
10 kt as high pressure builds toward the waters. The high will shift
offshore by Monday, allowing winds to become S-SE at ~15 kt for the
early part of next week.

Seas generally 2-3 ft over the ocean with 1-3 ft waves on the bay
through the period, although seas will briefly build to 4 ft by mid
to late Saturday morning behind the cold front.

Will continue with a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern
beaches today, with a moderate risk of rip currents for all of the
beaches on Saturday. Surf height during these periods of moderate
rip current risk will reach 3 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not expected Friday, but are listed below for
reference as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...