Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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840 FXUS61 KAKQ 280736 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds north of the region through this morning, then slides off the southern New England coast for this afternoon into tonight, providing dry weather. Heat and humidity return for Saturday and Sunday, with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front drops across the area late Sunday night through Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 945 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Patchy fog is possible across far southern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina overnight. Temps as of 945 PM ranged from the low-mid 70s for most under mostly clear skies. A secondary cold front is expected to cross the area late tonight/early Fri AM with calm winds becoming NNE/NE 5-10 mph late tonight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s N to the lower 70s SE (most in the upper 60s). Additionally, given clear skies across S/SE VA and NE NC with calm winds, some patchy fog is possible later tonight (mainly after 2 AM). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Not as hot and mainly dry Friday. - Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity. - Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. High pressure builds across New England Friday following the frontal passage. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the lower 80s along the coast, with mid to upper 80s-90F inland. Surface high pressure initially settles off the coast Friday night into early Saturday, with some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the area. Therefore, there is a slight chc to low chc of showers and perhaps a tstm from central VA and the Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore Friday night into early Saturday morning. Lows Friday night are mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heat and increasing humidity return Saturday as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast and the low-level flow becomes SSE. This will allow 850mb temps to rise to ~20C, which supports widespread lower to mid 90s inland. Highs near the coast are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s (mid 80s at the MD beaches) as there will still be a bit of an onshore component to the flow. This combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices of 100-105F. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn showers/tstms over the Piedmont in vicinity of a subtle lee-side trough, although mid to upper level height rises will act to suppress more widespread convection despite the fact that there will be a decent amount of sfc-based instability present. Another upper trough and cold front will approach the area on Sunday, and that cold front will cross the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. The LLVL flow will increase out of the SW on Sunday ahead of the front, allowing 850mb temps to rise to 20-23C. This will result in hot and humid conditions with mid 90s expected inland/low-mid 90s near the coast (morning lows will be in the mid to locally upper 70s). With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices of 105-109F are in the forecast. Note that the dew point forecast continues to be a couple degrees lower than NBM and is more in line with MOS values. In addition, scattered to numerous tstms are expected area-wide from Sun aftn-Sun night along and ahead of the cold front. Tstms will diminish from N to S late Sun night. Given the heat and humidity/ample instability, could see localized damaging wind gusts with any storms that form (mainly during the aftn/evening). Lows Sun night in the mid 60s-lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day. A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake of the cold front as the 12z/27 EPS and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence Day with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the area. Other than a few lingering showers in NE NC Monday morning, dry wx is expected through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 AM EDT Friday... Just SCT mid and high clouds will prevail at the TAF sites from early this morning into tonight. But, patchy fog will be likely across far S/SE VA and NE NC until 11-12z, before NE winds pick up over the region, with NE then E winds continuing into tonight with speeds 10-15 kt possible. IFR/MVFR VIS is possible with any fog early this morning. Winds become E then SE and lighter later tonight into Sat morning, with increasing cloud cover. High pressure and mainly dry conditions will prevail for today through at least Sat morning. Sctd showers/tstms are likely Sun into Sun night. High pressure and drier conditions return for Mon. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Key messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy onshore/southerly winds this afternoon through the weekend - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday. Latest analysis reveals a weak secondary cold front just north of the waters early this morning. Light SSW winds persist across the waters ahead of the front, with winds ~5-10 kt. High pressure slides into the NE CONUS through the morning, pushing the weak front south across the waters just before sunrise through mid-morning. Winds become NE post-frontal, increasing to 10-15 kt. Models continue to show BL winds ~20 kt across the upper bay for a brief time later this morning, and we`ve added a short Small Craft Advisory as a result north of New Point Comfort. Winds become more easterly through the day ~10-15kt. As high pressure to the N slides offshore later today and tonight, expect winds veer to the SE, becoming SSE by Saturday morning, with SE winds persisting Sat aftn ~10-15 kt. Another cold front looks to approach the area Sunday, and southerly winds will increase ahead of it late Saturday night as surface high pressure slides farther offshore ahead of the approaching front. Southerly channeling in the lower James and Ches Bay look increasingly likely to create a brief period of SCA- level winds late Saturday into Sunday morning, with winds appearing to fall just short of criteria over the coastal waters and most of the eastern Va rivers. Breezy S-SW winds continue ~10-15kt Sun aftn and night, turning to the NNW behind the front Monday. Models showing winds remaining sub- SCA at this time but given decent CAA for early July, another short-lived SCA appears quite possible Sunday night into Monday, again, mainly in the bay. Showers and storms will also accompany the front, with some SMW/MWS likely to be needed Sunday night. Waves/seas 1-2 ft early this morning. Seas increasing to 3-4ft later this morning (highest north) with developing onshore (NE) wind. Waves increase to around 2-3 ft (highest at the mouth of the bay), then remain at 1-2ft into Saturday. Waves up to 3ft will be possible in the bay onshore flow persisting on Saturday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all Atlantic- coast beaches in the FA through Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AM/MAM