508
FXUS61 KALY 020630
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
230 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
this afternoon ahead of and along an incoming cold front.
Isolated severe storms are possible with strong to damaging
winds being the primary hazard. Regionwide dry conditions return
tomorrow before additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with isolated chances for severe storms, return
Thursday. Cooler, more comfortable temperatures can be expected
Thursday and Friday before oppressive heat returns for the
weekend and into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 am EDT...A cold front continues to move across western New
England and southern NY this morning.  A sfc trough and dewpoint
boundary is moving across western and northern NY. Scattered showers
are ending ahead of the cold front near I-84 and Litchfield Co,
CT. A few showers are moving across the southern Adirondacks
and just north of the Mohawk Valley, as these should weaken this
morning. Patchy fog and low stratus lingers over portions of
western New England and the Hudson River Valley. The fog and
stratus should burn off quickly after sunrise.

Some weak cold advection will occur across the region, as the
dewpoints will slightly lower /upper 50s to mid 60s/ with moderate
humidity levels for early July, as high pressure briefly builds
in from the south and west centered near the central MS River
Valley and Missouri. The cold front may stall near the New
England Coast keeping clouds around a bit longer south and east
of the Capital Region, but expect partly to mostly sunny skies
north and west due to the subsidence in the wake of the front
with quasi-zonal mid level flow aloft. Highs will be in the 70s
to near 80F over the hills and mtns and lower to mid 80s in the
valleys. West to northwest winds will be 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible on Thursday with the primary hazards damaging wind
  gusts and large hail.

- High confidence for fair and dry weather for Independence Day
  with comfortable humidity levels and temps near to slightly
  below normal.

Discussion:

A potent northern stream trough digs equatorward from south of
Hudson Bay across the Great Lakes Region and Northeast. A short-
wave trough will approach from the Great Lakes Region and a
cold front will quickly near the St Lawrence River Valley and
eastern Great Lakes corridor by 12Z/Thu. In the southwest flow
aloft, clouds will increase after midnight from the north and
west. A decoupling of the winds will allow for radiational
cooling ahead of the ahead of the trough. Lows were accepted
from the NBM in the mid 50s to lower 60s over the region. A few
showers with a prefrontal trough may reach the western Dacks by
daybreak.

Severe weather threat looms on Thursday, as low and mid level
heights fall ahead of the short-wave trough.  A strong mid and upper
level jet encroaches the region with synoptic forcing due to the
left front quadrant, as modest instability sets up across the
region with SBCAPEs on the NAMnest/3-km HRRR in the 1000-1500+
J/kg range, though MLCAPEs are more like 500-1000 J/kg. 0-6 km
bulk shear increases to 30-45 KT with steeping mid level lapse
rate to 6.5-7.25 C/km. Low-level lapse rates also steepen.
Early showers may dampen, the severe weather threat north of
the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region, but from these areas south
including southern VT may have the best chance for multi-cell
cluster and lines and maybe a couple supercells to form with
bowing segments and large hail. We did not include enhanced
wording yet. The better dynamics may be slightly out of sync
with the stronger instability axis. All said, isolated to widely
scattered severe thunderstorms look possible and the Marginal
Risk looks good from SPC. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
will be common below 1000 ft in elevation with some mid/upper
80s in the mid Hudson Vally and NW CT. Upper 60s to Upper 70s
will be common above 1000 ft in elevation.

The cold front will move through Thu night with any lingering
showers/isolated thunderstorms diminishing early.  It will become
breezy and cool with lows in the 50s with some 40s in the Adirondack
Park.

Independence Day is looking pleasant with near to slightly below
normal temps, as a sfc anticyclone builds in from southeast Ontario
and the Great Lakes Region with mostly sunny skies. Humidity levels
will be comfortable with sfc dewpoints in the upper 40s to 50s.
Highs were tweaked slightly lower than the NBM based on collab with
WFO BTV with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys, and
60s to mid/upper 70s over the hills and mtn.  Weather conditions
should be splendid and delightful for the 4th firework displays with
thigh pressure over the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic States.
Lows will be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Oppressive heat returns late in the weekend into early next
  week for the major river valleys with heat indices
  potentially in the mid and upper 90s.

Discussion:

The holiday weekend will be dominated by high pressure near and
over the Mid Atlantic Region and Northeast. Mid and upper level
heights increase over NY and New England on Saturday, as
humidity levels become moderate with dewpoints in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Highs will be near to slightly above normal in the
lower to mid 80s in the valleys and 70s to around 80F over the
hills and mtns. Tranquil weather persists Sat night with lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A weak disturbance may increase
some clouds over the northern zones. Sunday it becomes a bit
more humid with H850 temps +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal based on
the NAEFS. The actual 850 hPa temps will be in the +17C to +19C
range with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the valleys
and upper 70s to upper 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices
in the mid/upper 90s will be possible with sfc dewpoints in the
mid 60s to around 70F based on the latest NBM. A few diurnally-
timed isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the
southern Dacks and the Lake George Region.

The NBM was photocopied for Monday and Tuesday, as the heat and
humidity peaks on Monday with the latest forecast data
supporting heat indices of 95-100F in the Hudson River Valley
and southern Litchfield Co with temps in the 80s to lower 90s
and sfc dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Heat Advisories
may be needed for some of the valley areas on Monday. A
prefrontal sfc trough may trigger some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the muggy air mass with some
locally heavy rain Mon pm. The cold front approaches from the
west Tue with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temps
may be a shade cooler with more clouds and convective coverage.
Overall, temps will be above normal to close the extended, but
nothing atypical for early July weather across eastern NY and
western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We start the 06z TAF period with a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions
due to low cloud ceilings. MVFR and IFR conditions continue to
fluctuate through 12z for all TAF sites due to low-level clouds
passing through and patchy fog. Some patchy fog could still develop
at KPOU/KPSF/KGFL, but continued to keep mention lowest visibility
potential and lower cloud ceilings in TEMPO group as ceilings and
visibility will fluctuate through this morning. Light and variable
winds continue through this morning.

VFR conditions prevail after 12z-13z, as daylight increases and
diminishes any patchy fog that develops, through the end of the
TAF period. Westerly winds continue as well between 5 and 10
knots through this afternoon.


Outlook...

Thursday Night to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Webb