115
FXUS61 KALY 171707
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
107 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over New York and New England
today continuing the fair and dry weather with above normal
temperatures.  Clouds will increase tonight in advance of a low
pressure system near the Mid Atlantic Coast, as a few showers are
possible south of Interstate 90 late Wednesday into Thursday.  High
pressure builds in from eastern Quebec by Friday with dry weather
and seasonable temps into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Lowered max temperatures by a degree or two in some
areas based on observations and trends early this afternoon.
Otherwise, no significant changes with this update.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1015]...Other than a few lingering patches of
low clouds and fog(mainly near Poughkeepsie), mostly sunny
conditions are in place late this morning. Any remaining fog
and/or low clouds will dissipate by Noon.

A stretched and elongated mid and upper level ridge continues
to be over the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast. A sfc
anticyclone is near or over New England. Some cirrus clouds
displaced well to the north/northeast of low pressure over the
Carolina`s will impact the region today with filtered sunshine.
Max temps will be above normal by 5-10 degrees with light and
variable winds due to the ridging at the surface and aloft.
Expect highs to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys
and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight through the mid week...the guidance continues to trend
drier and drier for the majority of the forecast area in the
short term period. The storm system over the Mid Atlantic States
will make little northward progress. High pressure will remain
near New England. Mid and high clouds should increase from the
south and west. Some patchy fog is possible in the valley areas
north and east of the Capital Region. Lows will be mainly in the
lower to mid 50s with a few upper 40s in the eastern Catskills
and southern Adirondacks.

The mid week features a reduction in PoPs as a sustained dry
spell of over a week continues over most of the forecast area.
Clouds will continue to thicken and lower. Some weak isentropic
lift may allow for a few showers to develop late in the day near
the I-84 corridor in NW CT and the mid Hudson Valley. We
removed the PoPs further north. The coastal low near the
Delmarva Region is blocked and makes little poleward progress.
Highs will be warmer from the Capital District northward with
partly sunny conditions with mid 70s to lower 80s. South of the
Capital Region expect upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. The cloud
cover should keep low temps a bit milder Wed night with 50s to
lower 60s. The weak synoptic forcing with an inverted sfc trough
north of the coastal wave may produce some isolated to
scattered showers from I-90 south and east late Wed night.

By Thursday, the coastal low may move further east/northeast off
the NJ Coast and moves towards southeast New England. We kept
slight to low chances of showers in south of the Capital
District. The moisture advection looks weak and all the dry air
aloft and northwest of the forecast area should only allow light
rain showers. Max temps will continue to be above normal with
mid 70s to lower 80s over the valley areas and mid 60s to mid
70s over the higher terrain with partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. The coastal wave moves away from southeast New
England Thu night, as a broad surface anticyclone builds in
from east/southeast Quebec with slightly cooler and less humid
conditions. Lows will fall into the 50s to around 60F. At this
point, some locations will have gone close to 10 days without
measurable rainfall, as astronomical summer is going to end on a
dry note this weekend after a very wet August!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level shortwave could bring unsettled weather conditions
into Friday afternoon before departing to our east on Friday
evening. While probabilities of precipitation are below 20 percent,
most locations will see cloudy skies on Friday. High temperatures
Friday are forecasted to be in the low to upper 70s, with low
temperatures in the 50s and low 60s in valley locations. A cold
front is currently favored to move through bringing seasonable
temperatures for this weekend behind it.

Upper level ridging is favored by latest ensemble forecast model
guidance for to build into the Northeast for this upcoming weekend
with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures returning through
Monday. Latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 data suggest high
temperatures this weekend being in the 60s and low 70s across
eastern New York and western New England into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...High level clouds continue to move overhead
through today. For KPSF, LIFR to IFR conditions become MVFR to VFR
between 12z and 13z. KPOU could continue to see fog through 15z,
but improvement to IFR conditions then VFR conditions after
14z. KGFL could continue to see low cloud ceilings in fog, so
kept mention of low clouds through 13z when conditions improve
to VFR. Then VFR conditions persist through tonight.

Calm winds continue for all TAF sites through the early morning
hours, with winds becoming less than 5 knots for this afternoon
and evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Webb