018
FXUS61 KALY 170514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
114 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure both at the surface and aloft, will
continue to bring warm and dry conditions through today. A low
pressure system developing near the mid Atlantic coast
may track northward enough for some isolated to scattered showers
Wednesday through Friday, mainly for areas south of Interstate 90.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 114 AM EDT...A stretch and elongated mid and upper level
ridge continues to be over the Great Lakes Region into the
Northeast. A sfc anticyclone is near or over New England. Some
cirrus clouds continue to move in from the south and west over
much of eastern NY and western New England due to the low
pressure system near the Carolinas. Some patchy fog has formed
over the northern most zones, as ideal radiational cooling has
occurred. We added more radiational fog along the CT River
Valley and the Lake George/Glens Falls area. We may get some
over the Berkshires and southern VT west of the Greens. The
cirrus is thinner north of I-90. Lows will be in the 50s. Some
adjustment to sky cover, temps and weather grids this update.

PREV DISCUSSION [1028 pm EDT]...

On Tuesday, the stagnant pattern continues
with high pressure still in place through Tue night.
Temperatures may be not quite as warm as recent days with
forecast mixing heights more shallow (up to ~925 mb). Above
normal highs are still anticipated, with upper 70s to lower 80s.

Developing low pressure off the southern mid Atlantic coast
will start to slowly meander northward, but should remain south
of our area through Tue night. Clouds should increase from south
to north, which would limit fog formation and also result in
milder low temperatures. Overall, lows in the 50s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly weak coastal low off the mid Atlantic coast is
expected to slowly drift northeast on Wed. With little steering
flow in the mid/upper levels, there is low confidence in the
track and associated rainfall with this system. At this time, we
are anticipating some showers near the northwest periphery.
Will continue to mention slight chance (~20%) along the I-90
corridor, with 30-40% chances south. There should be more cloud
cover than recent days, which would keep temperatures cooler
especially from I- 90 south. Highs look to be in the 70s south,
with upper 70s to lower 80s north. It will start to become more
humid with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s in valleys.

The coastal low should continue to creep northeast Wed night,
but again with lack of any substantial steering flow there
remains low confidence. Will expand mention of 30% PoPs through
the Capital District, with 40-50% south of Albany. With mostly
cloudy skies and some showers, low temperatures look mild the
mid 50s in the higher terrain to upper 50s/lower 60s in the
valleys.

Similar conditions anticipated on Thu, as the northern progress
of the coastal low stalls somewhere south of the southern New
England coast. A few bands of showers may continue to rotate
around the northwest periphery of the system, so will maintain
30-40% PoPs well south of Albany. Highs look to be near to
slightly above normal, with lower/mid 70s south of I-90 and
mid/upper 70s north. It will continue to feel somewhat humid
with dewpoints in the lower 60s in lower elevations.

A large/expansive area of high pressure will start to build
south from eastern Canada Thu night, which is expected to start
to push the coastal low back to the south. So will mention
decreasing PoPs through the night. Lows will still be mild
ranging from mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to move southward from SE Canada on
Fri, with ridging extending south/west from the center into New
England and eastern NY. This will allow for a cold front to
push south across our area. With limited moisture, will only
mention a 20% chance of a shower with the passage of the front.
Highs Fri look to remain above normal ahead of the cold front,
with mainly mid to upper 70s.

In wake of the cold front, high pressure will continue to build
south across the region Fri night through the upcoming weekend.
This is expected to result in dry conditions with temperatures
cooling off to near normal levels. Dry weather should persist
into Mon, with surface high pressure in place along with ridging
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies are fairly clear, although some thin high clouds are
starting to increase from south to north across the area. Some
drier air moved into the region this afternoon at low levels, so
this may help prevent fog from developing overnight at KALB/KPOU
and possibly KPSF as well. Will still keep in a brief tempo for
some fog around daybreak at KPSF but this is rather uncertain.

Meanwhile, good radiational cooling, combined with moist low-
levels, will allow for IFR fog to develop at KGFL. It may form
as early as 03z and looks pretty likely from about 06z through
sunrise.

On Tuesday, any mist or fog will dissipate shortly after
daybreak, allowing for another dry day with VFR conditions.
Sct-bkn high clouds are expected across the area with no
precip. Light south east winds at 5 kts or less are expected for
all sites.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis