Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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406 FXUS61 KALY 311857 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring clear and cool conditions tonight, with fair and warmer conditions for Saturday into Sunday. An upper level disturbance may bring some clouds, and spotty showers for areas mainly south of Interstate 90 Sunday afternoon and night. Warm and humid conditions are expected early next week, along with little if any rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM EDT, a mix of sun and patchy clouds across the region, with temps in the lower/mid 70s within most valley areas, and 65-70 across higher elevations. West/northwest winds remain a bit breezy, with some gusts up to 25 mph mainly within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires. Winds should quickly diminish shortly after sunset, and with a very dry airmass remaining in place, expect temperatures to drop off rapidly later this evening and overnight. Min temps should fall into the 40s for most areas, with some upper 30s possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern VT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... After a chilly start, expect mostly sunny skies Saturday and mainly clear skies through Saturday evening. Winds should be less than today, with afternoon high temps reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s in valley areas, and 70-75 across most higher elevations. Clear/partly cloudy skies Saturday evening should give way to mostly cloudy skies later at night as high/mid level clouds increase. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The upper level shortwave currently located over the southern Plains will track toward the region Sunday, however should weaken considerably upon reaching the upper level confluent flow across the region. The remnants of this shortwave should allow for some mid level clouds, and could allow for some afternoon showers/sprinkles to develop, mainly for areas south of I-90. Should downstream upper level disturbance across the NW Atlantic shift farther east and reduce upper level confluent flow across the region, then impacts from this disturbance may be slightly greater, and trends will need to be watched. Assuming a more optimistic outcome, high temperatures should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in valleys, and 70-75 across higher elevations, along with a slight uptick in humidity levels. Sunday night lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest trends suggest lack of larger scale forcing mechanisms until later next week, when a frontal system and upper level low approach from the west. So, minimal chances for showers for Monday through Wednesday, with best chances early Monday depending on ultimate track of shortwave just south of the region. Better chances for showers and possible thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. Warm and humid conditions are expected much of next week, with highs mainly in the 80s in valleys and 70s across higher elevations for Monday-Tuesday, then mainly 70s to around 80 Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure controlling the weather and the atmosphere is still drying, through tonight. Chances for fog toward daybreak Saturday are very small due to the dry air in the region. So, VFR through Saturday morning with mainly clear sky and VFR visibilities. Winds will be northwest at less than 10 Kt at KPOU and KGFL this afternoon, while 10 to 15 Kt with gusts around 20 Kt at KALB and KPSF. Winds trend to calm tonight, the become northwest Saturday morning at less than 10 Kt. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Picard NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...NAS