Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 260603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
203 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring mostly clear and dry
weather through tonight. Clouds will increase on Tuesday but
most of the day will be dry. A cold front approaching from the
west will bring rain showers to the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 135 AM...Infrared satellite imagery shows outer
bands of low, marine clouds beginning to push inland from the
Long Island and New England coastlines towards southern
Litchfield County with high clouds encroaching upon central New
York from the west. While skies across the forecast area remain
clear for now, adjusted cloud cover to account for incoming
clouds over the next couple of hours. Adjustments were not
drastic, but merely a little quicker increase in coverage from
southeast to northwest.

Current temperatures span the 20s and 30s with areas where winds
have almost gone calm experiencing the greatest radiational
cooling. These include the Upper Mid-Hudson Valley, Greater
Capital District and Eastern Catskills. Elsewhere, requisite
mixing has sustained winds, stabilizing temperatures in the
30s. Lows still maintain the expectation of primarily falling
into the 20s with some low 30s in the Mid-Hudson Valley.

Outside of minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover, the
previous forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for
additional details.

[PREVIOUS 339 PM EDT]...Surface high pressure will slowly
begin to retreat farther to the north and east tonight. An
upper-level low will continue to spin across the western
Atlantic; however, low-level moisture from this system could
lead to an expansion of low-level clouds toward daybreak,
especially for areas south and east of Albany. Elsewhere, a
mainly clear night is expected.

Where snowpack remains and there are little if any clouds and
light winds, temperatures could fall quickly tonight. Some of
these areas could fall into the teens. Elsewhere, lows will be
mainly in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Low-level moisture continues to increase on Tuesday from
southeast to northwest associated with the low pressure system
over the Atlantic. In addition, a frontal system will continue
to slowly approach from the west. Overall, Tuesday is looking
dry for most areas as we will remain in-between these two
features. Highs look to reach the 40s to lower 50s, but
portions of eastern New England may be stuck in the upper 30s.

Some CAMs suggest that low- level cold air could become trapped
underneath a warm nose aloft across areas mainly east of the
Hudson River on Tuesday and the lowest levels of the atmosphere
will be rather saturated. This could hold temperatures down
more on than currently forecast. In addition, this could result
in some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on air
temperatures) which could also continue through Tuesday night.

The frontal system approaches from the west Tuesday night
through Wednesday. The primary low and upper-level forcing with
this system will remain well to the north and west of the area.
This will cause the approaching cold front to weaken and slow
upon its approach and may even stall over the region. As a
result, only looking at scattered rain showers across the region
with overall low QPF amounts. Temperatures should rebound into
the mid-40s to mid-50s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level trough over the upper Midwest on Wednesday night
will slowly shift towards the Northeast for Thursday into
Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will be developing along a
stalled frontal boundary along the eastern seaboard on Thursday
and lifting northeast just offshore for Thursday night into
Friday. As a result, there could be some additional showers that
spread across the area on Wed night, with some steady rainfall
possible for eastern and southeastern areas for Thursday into
Friday. Although the heaviest rainfall looks to stay southeast
of the area closer to the coast, there could be some rainfall
amounts that exceed one inch for southeastern areas. Depending
on how quickly some cold air moves in aloft from the west, there
could be a changeover to wet snow before ending, especially for
the high terrain for western New England. Daytime temps look
seasonable (upper 40s to low 50s in valley areas) 30s at night
(some upper 20s for the high terrain).

Behind this system, mainly dry weather is expected over the
weekend, with just a spotty rain shower possible. Skies will be
partly cloudy with temps still close to normal. Another system
could spread some more rain towards the area for early next week
from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

While VFR conditions are in place at all TAFs as of 06 UTC
Tuesday, ceilings are expected to deteriorate through the
remainder of the TAF cycle for all sites as a marine air mass
infiltrates the region from southeast to northwest early this
morning. Latest GOES16 night fog channel already shows low
stratus from this marine deck across much of New England with
these lower ceilings spreading westward. PSF and POU will
experience MVFR ceilings first reaching POU by 07 - 10 UTC and
following at PSF by 12 - 15 UTC. ALB and GFL will remain VFR
through 15 UTC before the MVFR ceilings approach by 15 - 18 UTC
with MVFR cigs reaching ALB first followed by GFL by midday or
early afternoon.

Low-level moisture remains trapped underneath a subsidence
inversion through the remainder of the TAF period which will not
only support widespread MVFR ceilings but could even result in
IFR ceilings. There is still uncertainty on exactly which sites
and at what time IFR cigs may develop so only included IFR
ceilings at PSF at this time after 18 UTC. Besides low ceilings,
east to southeasterly winds in the boundary layer will also
support weak warm air advection off the Atlantic which may lead
to patchy drizzle and even patchy fog. Again, given some
uncertainty, only show reduced vsby at PSF developing after 00
UTC Wed but do show VCSH at all TAF sites after 21 UTC TUE. At a
minimum, MVFR ceilings will persist through the end of the TAF
cycle at all terminals but note that we may introduce IFR
ceilings and MVFR vsby at more sites in future updates depending
on how moisture profiles in forecast soundings trend. Best
chance for this is at POU given closer proximity to the
Atlantic.

Light and variable winds tonight trend out of the northeast by
14 - 17 UTC and become sustained around 5kts. Winds gradually
increase through the afternoon, becoming sustained 5-9kts and
shift to the east and southeast. These winds continue through
the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Gant/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale


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