357
FXUS61 KALY 222029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
429 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled period of weather is expected through tonight with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will bring
cooler temperatures and lower humidity on Thursday, but some
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially
along the Interstate 84 corridor. Dry weather returns for
Friday, before unsettled weather returns for the first half of
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 PM Update:

A very warm afternoon is in progress with scattered cumulus
clouds across the area. A pre-frontal trough has sparked
scattered showers and thunderstorms west of the area, mainly
across Central and Western NY. As this trough moves eastward
towards Eastern NY, there will be an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms as we approach evening. The best
dynamics for severe thunderstorms will be west of the area,
especially since by the time these showers and storms reach the
vicinity of the Capital Region and Hudson Valley, it will be
approaching or after sunset with waning instability. Shear is
lacking as well. That being said, cannot rule out a few stronger
storms with gusty winds due to steep low-level lapse rates and
mid-level dry air. Most of Eastern NY remains in a "Marginal
Risk" for Severe Thunderstorms in SPC`s Day 1 Outlook.

While the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will
diminish as the night progresses, there will still be some
lingering showers around overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy
skies are expected with lows in the 60s.

By daybreak Thursday, the cold front will be situated just south
of the Capital Region and through the Hudson Valley and it will
be slowly pushing to the southeast. Morning and early afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
just ahead of the front especially south of the Capital Region.
Modest instability (greater than 1500 J/kg) and more favorable
shear (greater than 30kts of 0-6km bulk shear) will result in
some of these thunderstorms becoming strong to severe. The best
chance for this will be further ahead of the front across our
far southeastern areas across the mid-Hudson Valley to
northwestern Connecticut. Locally damaging winds and/or hail
will be possible in these storms. Elsewhere, a general drying
trend will be present with partly sunny skies. Highs Thursday
will range from the 70s in the high terrain areas to mid to
upper 80s along the I-84 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
425 PM Update:

Cannot rule out a few isolated showers or thunderstorms early in
the evening Thursday across the mid-Hudson Valley to
northwestern Connecticut, but otherwise dry conditions are
expected Thursday night with partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies. Lows are expected to be in the 50s to near 60.

Friday will be a mainly sunny day as high pressure will be in
control. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, but with
lower dewpoints (mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s), it will feel
a lot more comfortable outside. The dry weather continues Friday
night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
425 PM Update:

An upper level shortwave will cross the region from southwest to
northeast on Saturday as a surface warm front also approaches. Some
showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s.

The associated cold front looks to cross the region on Sunday
as weak upper ridging builds overhead. This should result in a
drier day, but a few showers could still occur along the front.
Highs Sunday will be in the lower 80s along the Hudson Valley
and the 70s to around 80 elsewhere.

A complex upper level pattern looks to set up for early next week
with multiple pieces of upper-level energy rotating around one
another. Eventually, an upper level trough or upper level low looks
to form over the region. Another surface low pressure system
approaches from the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes and brings additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, possibly more widespread than
over the weekend. The extra clouds and greater coverage of
precipitation may hold temperatures into the 60s and 70s both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z/Thu...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
this evening. However, some weakening showers and thunderstorms
will be moving through the area this evening, which may produce
brief MVFR restrictions. Confidence in thunder is rather low,
but highest at KALB and therefore added a two hour TEMPO group
for thunder there from 02Z-04Z. Embedded thunder is possible at
KGFL, KPOU, and/or KPSF, but confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs at this time.

In the wake of these showers, some partial clearing may take
place and result in some patchy fog late tonight. A return to
VFR conditions is expected by mid- morning Thursday and into the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BJG