902
FXUS61 KALY 240545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A final day of dry weather is expected today with seasonable
temperatures. Increasing clouds this evening will precede rain
showers arriving from the west overnight tonight, ending two
weeks without accumulating rainfall across much of the region.
Unsettled weather will continue through Thursday before dry
weather returns Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Brief mid and upper-level ridging are building overhead early
this morning while surface ridging noses into the region from
the northeast, yielding yet another dry day. Some low clouds
will move into the Upper Hudson and portions of western New
England on easterly flow, while cirrus coverage spreads to the
northwest as a shortwave trough approaches from the Ohio Valley,
resulting in partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy by this
evening.

Overnight tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will arrive from
the southwest on the eastern flank of an upper trough. A closed
upper-level low will develop over the Mississippi Valley while
its parent northern stream trough continues to progress
eastward into southeastern Canada. Locally, low-level flow
turning out of the southeast will encourage modest warm
advection while synoptic support for ascent increases ahead of
the shortwave. Rain shower coverage will initially be isolated,
but will begin to fill in toward Wednesday morning as the main
northern stream trough makes its nearest approach. This will
mark the first accumulating rainfall for most of the region in
over two weeks.

Following morning lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, temperatures
will rise to near seasonal norms today, reaching afternoon
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and mid 60s to
low 70s at lower elevations. Beneath overcast skies as rain
showers arrive, slightly more mild conditions are expected
tonight, as temperatures fall to lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Early Wednesday morning, a positively tilted shortwave is on
track to approach the area from the west. As it does so, the
southernmost section will break off and strengthen into a closed
low across the Mississippi Valley, with the northern stream
trough moving into the Great Lakes and Ontario. WAA and moisture
will strengthen across the region with increasing southwesterly
flow, forcing with the shortwave and surface cold front, which
will increase chances of welcomed rain showers across the
region. Coverage of showers will increase during the daytime
Wednesday and last through the night. Rumbles of thunder will
also be possible as we will have some weak levels of elevated
instability per fcst soundings, though the risk of severe
weather is low.

Temperatures will be cool thanks to the clouds and precipitation,
with highs Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. There will
not be much of a diurnal drop Wednesday night with lows only in the
low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An unsettled start to the long term forecast period will give way to
what looks to be another prolonged stretch of dry weather across
eastern New York and western New England. Read on for details...

Upper-level, shortwave troughing resides across the region Thursday
morning as an associated surface cyclone tracks south and east
across southern Quebec. A weak cold front will swing through the
region from west to east Thursday in attendance with the progression
of the surface low while the upper-level wave deepens and closes off
at the 500 mb level. These features, though their position will
maintain better forcing to the north of the region, will allow for
isolated to scattered showers to linger Thursday morning into the
afternoon especially in higher terrain areas where upslope flow
could aid in overcoming the lack of stronger forced ascent. However,
with the upper low following a fairly swift track, dry conditions
should be reinforced across the region by Thursday evening.
Additionally, with moisture on the modest side, QPF is anticipated
to be light and much needed after the recent dry spells.

Upon the exit of the aforementioned system, geopotential heights
increase as upper-level ridging builds in from the west and surface
high pressure sinks south from southeast Canada. Fair weather will
persist across eastern New York and western New England through
Sunday as the upper ridge continues to build farther across the
Northeast.

High temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will be
fairly steady with upper 60s to mid 70s with pockets of mid 60s
across higher terrain regions and upper 70s in valley areas. Low
temperatures, too, will be fairly similar across the period with
mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. IR satellite
imagery shows some patches of low stratocu and stratus clouds
around the region, with ceilings around 1500-4500 ft. The lowest
clouds have been near KPSF. Most of these are starting to
diminish, but will continue to allow a TEMPO at KPSF for brief
MVFR conditions. Otherwise, IR satellite imagery shows bands of
mid and high level clouds moving into the area from the west.
Will continue to mention these clouds for the late night hours.
With these clouds moving in (as well as the patches of lower
clouds currently in place), fog will have a hard time forming
early this morning, so won`t mention any mist or fog for this
morning. Winds will be light or calm through the rest of the
overnight hours.

Through the day on Tuesday, flying conditions should be VFR with
no precip. There will continue to be sct-bkn mid and high level
clouds around through the day. South to southeast winds will be
around 5 kts.

No precip is expected to start Tuesday night, but some showers
are possible by the late night hours and towards Wednesday
morning. Ceilings will be starting to lower with bkn cigs around
3500-5000 ft expected by Tuesday evening. South to southeast
winds will continue around 5 to 10 kts into Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Frugis