464
FXUS61 KALY 150052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
852 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms end this evening.
Then skies clear from north to south as high pressure builds
across the region for the weekend. Expect plenty of sun and
seasonable temperatures before a prolonged period of hot and
humid weather arrives for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 815 PM, the majority of the severe weather today has
remained south of our area in NJ/NYC/eastern PA with just some
non-severe storms in the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills,
Berkshire County and eastern Catskill where dew points remain
moist in the low 60s. Further north, a dew point boundary has
shifted from north to south across the southern Adirondacks,
Upper Hudson Valley and through the Capital District resulting
in much lower dew points that have dropped into the low 50s.
This boundary has stalled across Greene, Columbia, and southern
Berkshire County where a few isolated storms have developed
along it. MLCAPE values per the SPC mesoanalysis around
1000J/kg is available south of this boundary where dew points
remain moist so will continue to interrogate the updraft
strength and other radar signatures to monitor severe weather
potential. Otherwise, an area of rain and storms from the
organized severe storms in NJ/NYC grazed southern Ulster/Dutches
and Litchfield County but did not result in severe weather and
even that activity will continue exiting into New England
through early evening.

As the true cold front and associated cold pool continues to
push south and east through the southern Adirondacks this
evening, a few isolated showers may develop so maintained slight
chance POPs here; however, any showers will diminish with the
lose of daytime heating and the shortwave trough shifts
eastward. Most showers should end before Midnight. Sfc winds
will shift to the north- northwest as the cold front push south
and eastward overnight and the incoming dry air will help clear
the skies as well with dew points falling behind the boundary.

Some patchy fog may form in areas where rainfall occurs this
evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy toward
daybreak with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning,
especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs,
otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday
morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning,
especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga
region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before
diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in
the 70s.

Clear and chilly Saturday night, with PWAT`s dropping to or
below 0.50" and light/calm wind. This should provide excellent
radiational cooling and allow temperatures to drop off into the
40s to around 50, although some upper 30s will be possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon,
otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s.

Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated
thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid
level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prolonged period of excessive heat/high humidity increasingly
likely for much of next week...

Strong mid/upper level ridging sets up across eastern U.S. next
week, allowing for heat and humidity to build. Have used NBM
mean for forecast temperatures, giving widespread mid/upper 90s
Tuesday through Friday for elevations below 1000 feet, and upper
80s to lower 90s above 1000 feet. Dewpoints should reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s during this time period, allowing heat
indices to reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s in valley areas
during this time. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper
60s to lower 70s, warmest in valleys immediately adjacent to the
Hudson/Mohawk Rivers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may
develop each afternoon, especially by Thursday-Friday as a weak
front possibly approaches from the north.

Monday will be the transition day to hotter weather, with max
temps generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s in valleys and upper
70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. There could be
some clouds and perhaps isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms around, especially across the southern
Adirondacks, as a weak mid/upper level disturbance passes
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Showers and isolated storms this evening near PSF and POU will
diminish by 02 UTC. During any storm, brief MVFR ceilings and
IFR visibility is possible. Otherwise, ALB and GFL are north of
the shower/storm activity and will remain dry. Then, a cold
front will continue pushing southward tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and a wind shift to the north-northwest. Winds
have already shifted to the northwest at GFL with ALB likely
shifting by 03-04 UTC followed by PSF 05-06 UTC. Since the wind
shift at POU will be delayed until closer to 09 - 11 UTC and
skies should clear overnight, some patchy fog may develop given
the moist air mass still in place. Included MVFR vis by 05 UTC
with patchy fog lingering until the winds shift closer to
sunrise.

Any patchy fog at POU clears out by 11-12 UTC with VFR
conditions prevailing at all terminals through 00 UTC Sunday.

North to northeast winds will become breezy by 12 - 15 UTC at
all terminals sustained 7 - 11 kts and gusts up to 20-25kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale